With this exercise I intend to go through the offseason as if I were the one guiding the ship for our Chicago Bulls. Along the journey, I’ll try to point out what I expect management to do as well. Keep in mind these are two very different approaches. For example, John Paxson is on record as saying he believes the Bulls are more or less set at the 2-5 long term, and appears to think the Bulls are in a position to start focusing on positional need in the draft instead of best player available…….I don’t.
Let’s get started with the draft.:
And yeah it’s not pretty. My top 3 is pretty chalk so I won’t go into much detail about them, but:
I’ve got Zion as my easy number 1. He’s a clear top choice in most drafts and I project him to be a top 10 player in the league within 5 years. Ja Morant is an easy #2 in this draft. However, he wouldn’t have made my top 5 last year and is probably more of a true #3/4 most years. I believe in the D’Aron Fox comps he draws. RJ Barrett is a tier below. Some say he’s overrated, but give me a guy who scored like he did in the ACC playing as an 18 year old the entire season. If he can improve his shooting and play less hero ball he should be a clear plus starter.
There are 3 more players who I think are acceptable value and would be worth a roll of the dice at 7 even in a stronger draft :
4. Jarret Culver- He comes from the Jimmy Butler/Kawhi Leonard mold of guys I like targeting. All were lightly recruited out of high school, have clear plus physical tools, and are seen more as defense first prospects who struggle with shooting. I think the improvement shown in their games during their time in college stems at least in part from a strong work ethic, and it makes taking the leap as a pro that much more likely. And if there is one particular skill of a player’s game I think he’s likely to get better at as he ages it’s jump shooting. He was still too inefficient in college for me to fall in love with, but I can easily see him starting in the league for a decade.
5. Brandon Clarke- One of the most confusing prospects I’ve come across evaluating. On one hand he’s a 6’8” center with a tiny wingspan and is one of the oldest players in the draft coming in at 23 years old. On the other hand he just put up the second best Box Score Plus Minus in college basketball the last seven years. Only Zion’s was better. Anthony Davis and Karl Anthony Towns check in at 3 and 4. That’s some truly elite company. I think there’s enough potential as a guy who can protect the rim, switch on to anyone and be a strong roll-man in the P&R to provide value at 7.
6. Bol Bol- Kristaps Porzingas. That’s the only other player I can think of with his size, speed, shot blocking ability and ability to shoot from 3. The comp gets even more real when you factor in the injury risk involved with the players. While I don’t think he projects quite as well as KP even if he weren’t injured, taking stabs at players who have medical red flags is a market inefficiency. Joel Embiid went 3 instead of 1 purely because teams were scared to roll the dice on someone who was such an injury risk (and it’s hard to fault them when they I’m not the one making the multi million dollar investment). I think Bol is a fine pick at 4, but he’s way more likely to get taken around 14 from mock drafts I’ve seen.
As for the other names you hear around 7. Darius Garland is an undersized point guard coming off a serious knee injury and a negative Assist to Turnover ratio in 5 college games. Looks more like a future backup than guy I’d take at 4. Deandre Hunter is already 21 and is overrated defensively. More of a late lottery guy for me. Little, Langford and Reddish clearly have the physical tools to play on the wings, but struggled mightily with consistency and no proof of a reliable enough jump shot. All of them are more or less mid 1st round type of talents to me (except I might have Reddish a little higher). Coby White hasn’t shown any point guard skills and Jaxson Hayes is just a project. Some of these guys will go in the top 10 justifiably in this draft cause it is so weak, but none of these guys listed would’ve sniffed my top 10 list last year.
Other ideas:
My favorite move would probably be to trade down and get two bites at the apple. The Celtics are the team that would probably make the most sense if this were to happen. They’ve got the 14th and 22nd (not to mention the 18th ) picks in the draft. Depending on the draft chart you’re using that would be viewed as an equal trade or close to it.
Not only do you get two bites at the apple, but there is a real good chance that at least one of Bol and Clarke, guys I might’ve taken at 7, are available at 14. I did a quick composite draft board of these guys and both were projected to go right at #14. If Boston has someone they love fall to #7 I’d do that deal in a heartbeat.
If the Bulls do trade down either with Boston or pick up another late first round draft pick in a salary dump (more on this on my next piece) here are the guys I’d give long looks at.
Matisse Thybulle- Unreal defensive presence. Put up some of the most dominant steal and block shot numbers in college basketball history this year. That being said the zone defense he plays in tends to not translate as well to the pros, and his offensive game is borderline nonexistent especially for a prospect his age. Still, I think there is a pretty strong chance he can become an Andre Roberson like asset to the team that drafts him.
Talen Horton Tucker- Youngest player in the draft who has a real unique game. I think sometimes organizations struggle with taking talented players with unorthodox playing styles and builds like this, because they don’t see how they fit into a traditional system. I say take a shot on the PJ Tucker, Marcus Smart kind of player. He’s a Chicago kid too.
Keldon Johnson- I have seen him all over draft boards from potential lottery pick, to early 2nd rounder. The eye test probably says more of the former, while the numbers probably say more than the latter. Normally I lean towards what the analytics say, but there is nothing I love more than targeting Jon Callipari guys. I don’t think there is a coach in America that gets less out of elite talent year in and year out than him. With the energy he plays with and 3 point touch demonstrated he’d be somewhere around 15 of my draft board this year.
2nd round plays
Finally we have a second round draft pick from Memphis, coming in at #38, that we got in the Justin Holiday deal. There are 2 guys I’m really looking at here:
Chuma Okeke- His block and steal numbers portray a more dominant college defender than the much more highly regarded DeAndre Hunter. He’s a little younger too. Plus, as I said earlier I find their to be a lot of value in targeting guys who some teams may shy away from due to injury concerns. If Hunter goes top five it’d be crazy if Okeke got to the second round. Kevin Pelton’s stat only projections has him as the third ranked player in this class.
Johntay Porter- Another guy fear of injuries may be creating value. Porter would’ve been a mid first round pick last year (he was my dream at 22, that tuned into Chandler Hutchinson), and came into the year as a top 10 prospect. However, he blew out his knee twice. While that obviously hurts his development, and it’s hard to have faith in him being healthy going forward, that he projected as a long term starter a year ago means he’s still a first round talent in this draft class for me. He’d be terrific value at 38.
I’ll be following up in a couple days with a post on some trade targets I’d like to see the Bulls pursue. I’m thinking this will be a 4 part series, but we’ll see how it goes.
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