I expect the Bulls to be at least somewhat active here, but I wouldn’t. Shopping for a nice stopgap options is pretty much putting lipstick on a pig at this point. I could very easily see the Bulls using their cap space on a couple of serviceable veterans to help push the Bulls from a bad 29 win team to a below average 34 one.
If the Bulls do play the Free Agent game the big thing to keep in mind is since there is no real rational way of looking at the current squad and seeing them as a good team the next two years the focus should be on the summer of 2021. NO CONTRACT SHOULD HAVE MORE THAN 2 YEARS GUARANTEED!
That’s also the time that Porter can opt out of his contract and Lauri will be coming off his rookie contract. Just lay in the weeds until then as that will be the summer to make moves in free agency in what should be a fairly star studded class. The theme of the summer should be accumulate enough assets that project to help in 2021 and beyond ,while not doing anything to make the product better now at the expense of that time-frame. Free Agency is inherently a market where generally you hope to get enough surplus value in the first part of a contract to make up for the overpay on the second part of the contract……the exact opposite attitude the Bulls should have when approaching their roster this summer.
All in all, I’d try to use any cap space to absorb bad contracts that have draft picks attached to them. There is a greater chance a draft pick, even one in the 20’s or an early second rounder ultimately makes the Bulls more competitive in the first half of the next decade than any Free Agent would.
That being said there are a handful of guys I wouldn’t mind seeing the Bulls target. Here they are by group they belong in
Stop Gap Point Guards:
Kris Dunn is already 25 and is a Free Agent after next season. He offers virtually nothing when he doesn’t have the ball in his hands, and isn’t nearly efficient or creative enough to be given the keys to the offense. His defense is terrific, but it’s hard to look at him and see anything more than a backup who doesn’t really fit with the other pieces on the team. I think he is the Bull most likely to be traded, and even if he isn’t it wouldn’t be a bad idea to search for an upgrade if it came at the right price.
When it comes to Point Guards there are a couple of things I’m looking for. (other than willingness to only take a 2 year contract)
In order they are:
- 3 point shooting
- Ability to setup and help develop big men
- Defensive ability
- Create buckets
- Veteran leadership. A good presence in the locker room.
With Lavine, Porter and Lauri, we have a stable of somewhat young guys who are capable of making plays for themselves. Let’s see what these guys look like when we expand this role more, and figure out if they can do even more when provided with a little more spacing. I want a Point Guard who doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be a plus player. Spacing and defense is key.
At the same time, the Bulls were one of the worst passing teams in the league last year. This hurts the development of the young big’s. If we want to get the most out of Lauri and Carter we should get a point guard who is a half step ahead and puts them in the best position to succeed.
The Bulls were also one of the worst defensive teams in basketball last year. By taking Dunn’s minutes away we project even worse on that end. It would be nice to have a defensive strategy that wasn’t too reliant on a 20 year old to always be in the right position to make up for other player’s mistakes.
Of course any player that checks all of these boxes would be at least a borderline star and probably out of the Bulls pay range. That being said there are a couple of good options that check most of the boxes and might even prove to be bargins. My favorites would be 1 and 3 on this list:
Ricky Rubio: As a 28 year old point guard he’s a little old for the Bulls timeline, but for 2 years he’d be a real good fit. He’s one of the best defensive point guards in the league (he’s rated in the top 12 every year in Defensive RPM for the last 5 years) and is the kind of creator that will set up Markkanen and Carter to aid their development. I’ve read in a coupe spots online that his next contract might come in south of 15 million dollars/year. In this market that should be about the floor of what a league average starter should net. I think Rubio is at least an average starter and probably more. If you could get him for 2/$32 million there might actually be some surplus value in that contract and could potentially make him valuable during a trade next year.
Darren Collison: He’s simple. A true stopgap option who has proven he can play next to a ball dominant 2 guard (although Lavine is no Oladipo). He’s already probably a negative defensively, and projects as worse than that going forward as a guy who relies a tun on speed who’s already on the wrong side of 30. Still his 3 point shooting should makes him reliable enough that 2 years at 20-25 million wouldn’t hurt.
Patrick Beverly: I don’t know what kind of salary he is searching for, but Beverly may be the perfect combo of first 2 players on this list. He’s every bit the defender Rubio is and probably a little more, while bringing similar spacing to Collison. I think he might be as good as Rubio, but guys who play point guard and average 9 points per game tend not to make big bucks. If the market doesnt pay him what he’s truly worth, I say bring the hometown kid home to help with the youth movement.
Tomas Staroansky- A Restricted Free Agent who I have some interest in. With the Wizards probably wanting to keep salary low I could see him being let free. He at least moderately checks all of the boxes that I’m looking for, but I just don’t know at what price. As a rule RFA’s tend to have to get paid too much in order for their original teams not to match the offer though. It’s a situation I would keep my mind on as the offseason progressed.
Guys I don’t want:
Derrick Rose- It’s a cute thought, but he’s the exact kind of PG I want the Bulls ignoring.
Terry Rozier- I’ve seen in some places that he might get all the way up to the 15 million dollars per season range. That’s crazy to me for a guy I’m not even sure would be an upgrade over Dunn in the first place. Other than his fun playoff run replacing Kyrie Irving last year, he’s been about as average as it gets. I wouldn’t mind rolling the dice on him on a 1 year 10 million dollar kind of deal, but he’s no kind of long term answer at the position and overlaps with a lot of the guys we already have on the roster.
Wings that could provide some depth:
Justin Holiday, Kentavious Calwell-Pope or Wayne Ellington
I stated in my piece the other day how one of my goals was to sell high on Zach Lavine to the least analytical team that I could find. If the Bulls were to move on from him, however, that would leave a lot of minutes at the 2 wide open without any strong in house replacements. Again the qualities I’m l targeting would be guys who could space the floor to let the younger guys go to work, and if they provided a little defense on top of that without getting into 8 figures, perfect! I feel like all 3 of the guys listed above at least semi fit that description
Versitile Forwards:
Jake Layman or Jared Dudley:
One thing I’d like to see the Bulls do more of is put Lauri at the five and a interchangeable floor stretching forward next to Otto Porter. Both of these guys would fit that bill and should not come at too high of a cost.
Semi interesting young bigs:
Kevon Looney, Khem Birch and Christian Wood
The Bulls currently don’t have an even replacement level backup at the 4 nor 5 on their roster. All of these guys showed flashes of being potentially being serviceable starters for various stretches last season. Looney is clear role player who played an important role for the Warriors. Birch taking Mo Bamba’s backup center minutes in Orlando was one of the keys that spurred their late season playoff run. Wood put up some huge numbers in some of the most tanktastic games this March and April for the Pelicans. None of these guys will probably run even 10 million total for over 2 years, and there is a chance one of the last 2 will be available for the minimum.
Again though, we are not in any kind of position to be taking big swings in free agency. Hopefully, it gets used as nothing more than a tool for filling a hole or 2 in the rotation to plug holes that might otherwise go to Antonio Blakeney level awful players.
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