Best Over/Under Bets for the 2019-20 NBA Season

***I didn’t edit any of this cause I am afraid my computer has like 2 hours of life left in it. Apologies ahead of time for anything that came out sloppy***

With the beginning of the NBA season right around the corner I wanted to go on record and quickly share some of the best values on over/under for win totals I see throughout the League. All of the projected win totals I’m using from Bovada. For this piece all the teams are ranked in order of confidence I have in the potential play, but I have further broke them down into tiers for people who might be looking for more concrete betting advice.

Fringe Plays

15. LAC under 54

They easily could be the best team in basketball at full strength, but there are 2 reasons that will keep them from hitting 54. One is Paul George is out at least the first 10 games of the season. The second is Kawhi Leonard’s load management.

14. Houston under 53.5

It seems like Houston hits this number every year, but I’m skeptical they’ll keep it up. They are at their best when James Harden has the ball in his hand, so acquiring someone who has the ball in his hands more than any other player in the league could wind up hurting. Additionally, this is one of the oldest and thinnest rosters in the league. The roster outside of their big 2 almost feels like a house of cards. The final point against would be that this could be the year where Harden finally adjusts and decides to save himself more for the playoffs instead of chasing MVP’s .

13. Memphis over 26.5

I don’t think they’re great by any stretch of the imagination, but a front-court of Jaren Jackson Junior, Jonas Valancunius, Jae Crowder and Brandon Clarke, along with decent PG play from Ja Morant and Tyus Jones should provide enough mediocrity to get them to around 30 wins.

12. Denver over 53

They won 54 games last year, had one of the younger teams in the league, return 93% of their minutes played, and should be more fortunate with injuries this year than last. To top it all off they made a good move in picking up Jerami Grant, and get Michael Porter Junior this year. I dont like taking overs on teams in the mid to low 50’s but this could easily be a play.

Plays I Would Make

11. Minn over 35.5

Karl Anthony Towns plus improved coaching ought to get them to around 40 wins. If they could get an even average point guard somehow I could see a playoff team here.

10. OKC over 32

Their starting lineup is surprisingly decent and are another team I could see making a playoff run if they stayed healthy. Still they are all in for the future, so I don’t have as much confidence in them not trading away some of their best players, or trying to tank towards the rest of the season. Even then, if they are around .500 around the trade deadline and then decide to sell/tank that should be enough for them to cover this number with a fair amount of room to spare.

9. Utah under 53.5

A lot of people are loving what Utah did, but I see more of a rearranging of chairs rather than drastic improvement with this team. Yes Mike Conley is and upgrade over Ricky Rubio for sure, but when you factor in they surrendered a fair amount of depth with Korver and Crowder in that deal as well did they really move the needle all that much. Same thing with Bogdonavic. He will undoubtedly help juice the offense, but at what expense defensively. Derrick Favors was always kind of an awkward fit their next to Gobert, but he might be the better all around player of the two. When you factor in all the aggressive plays the other teams made around them, this is a team that’s more or less a coin flip to hit 50 wins.

8. Chicago over 32.5

The Bulls gave as a high of percentage of minutes to replacement level players as any team in the league last year. By replacing those minutes with Thad Young, Tomas Satoransky and Luke Kornet, to go along with a full season of Otto Porter Jr. and a mild projected breakout from Wendell Carter this should be a team that competes for a playoff spot in the weaker conference.

7. New Orleans over 37.5

This would be my second most confident play in the League if I knew that Zion were healthy. Even with his knee being the saddest question mark in the league right now this team might be able to crack 37.5 without him. Lonzo Ball might be my favorite breakout pick in the league right now, and they might be the deepest team in the league. This is particularly important as overall depth is often the most overlooked detail when analyzing teams projections. Here’s to hoping Zion can stay healthy and that he leads them to 45 wins and the playoffs.

6. LAL under 51.5

On talent they ought to get there, but if there were a team I have faith in barfing all over itself and messing things up this is the one. Nothing neutralizes the greatness of Lebron James quite like a ball dominant point guard who can’t shoot. These guys might start Rajon Rondo. Anthony Davis is at his apex when surrounded by as much shooting as possible allowing him to roll to the rim while getting to protect the paint defensively. Vogel and Co. seem committed to letting him have his wish of being a Power Forward and playing him next to Dwight Howard and Javale McGee. Additionally, Vegas lines are historically inflated toward big market/popular teams. Add it all up, and we have a team who’s sum will likely be less than it’s total parts at least until the playoffs start.

5. Charlotte over 23.5

Don’t take this as an endorsement for the Hornets. This team in all likelyhood will suck. But will they suck to the worst record in the league? Doubtful. As flawed as Terry Rozier, Cody Zeller, Nic Batum, Marvin Williams, etc. are, they provide a framework of a merely bad team, rather than train-wreck awful team. I see more of a mid-high 20’s win team with no excitement for the future here than anything else.

Close to Locks

4. Dallas over 40.5

This team has two guys who wouldn’t be surprising all-stars and strong depth at every position. Rick Carlisle is still one of the best coaches in the entire league as well. Put it all together and you would have team that would be a safe bet for the playoffs in just about any other season other than this years absolutely loaded west.

3. Detroit under 37.5

Last year this team overachieved to 42 wins with Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin only missing 7 games combined. Let’s say I wouldn’t bet on that happening again. Then look at the depth chart on the wings, and see if you can find a team in more dire straits than these two. Maybe Griffin and Derrick Rose defy time and age better in their 30’s than they did in their late 20’s but that does not seem like a wise thing to count on. I will come out with my projected standings before the season starts, but I’ll say that I basically have the Bulls and Pistons win totals flipped.

2. Philadelphia under 54.5

This team traded away their best player. In all the hype surrounding what the Sixers did this last off-season that fact always seems to get lost. Jimmy Butler is who carried them when the playoffs came around, and now he’s in Miami. It’s hard to win more games when you start the off-season by not bringing back one of the 12 best players in the league. Even if we go back to two years ago are we sure that Al Horford, Tobias Harris and Josh Richardson are better than Robert Covington, JJ Redick and Dario Saric? While the bench has some intriguing young guys, there still isn’t anybody there that has proven they can be counted on. And the final elephant in the room is that Joel Embiid’s health is far from a guarantee. It will be hard for Philly to get to the 51 wins they hit the last 2 years. Adding to that total is a bet to hedge.

Phoenix over 29.5

I understand betting on Phoenix after the absolute shit show they have been the past few years could feel like lighting your money on fire. Still a top 8 of Rubio-Booker-Oubre/Evans-Saric-Ayton-Johnson-Baynes is littered with guys you could safely call around league average. Monty Williams is a repsected coach who should help stabalize things as well. Finally, the Suns are kind of like the anti-Lakers, a relatively unpopular team that Vegas might purposely set a lower line for. I have them in the same class as the Sacramento Kings, a team that has plenty of depth that should allow for it to be competetive in the west but not enough star power to make the playoffs. Enough so their win total is more likely to begin with a 4 than a 2.

The Lock of the Season

1. Indiana under 47.5

I can’t figure this one out for the life of me. This team overachieved to 48 wins last year, and then lost 4/5 of its starting lineup for at least the start of the season. Sure Malcolm Brogdon is a nice pickup, and they had some depth to absorb some of those losses, but for a team that thrived so much on it’s unity to succeed such roster turnover could be even more drastic than for most teams.

That doesn’t even get into how poorly constructed this roster, or at least the front-court, currently is. Both Sabonis and Turner are solid NBA Centers, but they posted a negative +/- in the minutes they shared the floor together. The league is getting to a point where it becoming increasingly difficult to run twin towers kind of lineups. These guys will miss Thaddeus Young a lot.

Maybe Nate McMillan and the culture he has fostered are not earning the credit they deserve, but even then it’s almost impossible for me to map out ways where this team reaches the heights of the last couple of seasons. My money says this team doesn’t even get to .500. Run to Bovada and thank me in April.