Here’s a brief dive through some thoughts on the NBA these past few weeks:
***Ive seen a couple of people’s opinions who I normally really respect lower on Milwaukee than I would’ve thought. Everything from how much it hurts to lose Brogdon, to how reliant they are on 3 point shooting, to not having a typical 1-2-3 hierarchy gets used as an excuse as to why they aren’t the best team in the league.
To all of those I pretty much say “who cares?” The Bucks were the best regular season team last year, and we’re cruising through the playoffs until a Fred Van Vleet 14-17 from downtown supernova attack fueled the eventual champions into taking them down. They’re pretty easily the best team in basketball this season, and while the East has had a few nice surprises at the top of the conference, they still get to play in the weaker part of the league. They were single most likely team to win the finals before the year and they remain there now.
However, there is one point that could prove true that would have me (and kind of has me as I search for a home away from the Bulls) worried as a Bucks fan: Is Eric Bledsoe merely a regular season 82 game player who can’t fill the role he needs to come playoff time?
Last year he wilted from semi all star to getting benched for George Hill in merely a month. The lack of 3 point shooting will always make him somewhat of a gunky fit next to Giannis, but if he can’t occasionally take his guy to get to the rim and get buckets as well, then he’s less valuable than your average 3-and-D type of guy.
That ultimately could prove huge, because as great as Milwaukee’s depth has proven to be, without Brogdon, Bledsoe is the only gap between Giannis/Middleton and a bunch of guys who are merely role players.
When it comes down to the playoffs the stars are almost always what matters most. Whoever’s best player plays better wins most of the time. However, not even prime MJ nor Lebron we’re going and getting rings by themselves. The one middle tier guy singlehandedly most likely to effect who winds up winning it all is Bledsoe.
A couple other quick thoughts on Milwaukee:
- I’ve caught the Bucks playing with Giannis at the five a couple times this year, and it’s potential should be horrifying to the rest of the league. The ability to overwhelm defenses with plus shooting while having Giannis cover everything up on the other end might make those particular Milwaukee lineups the best in the league. Again though, Bledsoe’s ability to space the floor in this look will be paramount.
- They seem to substitute a lot. And they do it in a rapid fire sort of way with just one guy checking in at a time too. I’d be curious to see if there is any certain science to it, if it’s just a unique Bud thing.
***I’ve called for the end of San Antonio’s playoff reign prematurely last year, and was scared to do so again this year despite a lot of numbers calling for it. Greg Popovich had earned that Bill Belicheck level of respect where you simply assume he’s a step ahead of everyone else at all points and adjust accordingly.
Even with that adjustment, it seems that whatever secret he knows about great offenses is starting to get bludgeoned by the shift into 3’s and dunks in the NBA.
I’m not exactly a cookie cutter Moreyball guy. A little differentiation can be good from time to time, and that the analytics community by and large underestimates guys like DeRozan and Aldridge as a result. Still, the Spurs shot charts look at least a decade old and they might be at a point where they’re just hitting their head against the wall ignoring the math.
I’m not writing them all the way off yet. This is Pop, and .500 might actually might be good enough to get you into the playoffs out west for once, but right now the smart money says this is no playoff team in 2020.
***I still don’t get why the Conventional Wisdom was so high on the Utah Jazz and the Mike Conley trade this offseason. If this team is going to get past the second round of the playoffs this year it was always going to be a result of Donovan Mitchell taking a larger than expected step forward rather than the modest projected bump from Rubio to Conley. Mitchell has shown flashes of doing that, but this still looks like a team that’s at a minimum a half rung below at least the LA teams out west.
As for the team’s other star this might be Rudy Gobert’s best defensive performance yet. Royce O’Neal is solid, but the other 3 starters have no business being on a top 3 defensive team. Gobert isn’t finding the same success with Conley that he had with Rubio, but the fact that you can pretty much guarantee yourself a top 5 defensive team with him regardless of who he shares the floor with shows the guy is legitimately the best defensive player in the league and without a doubt a deserving all star.
One thing to keep an eye on is the rebounding. The other starters all sport below average rebounding rates relative to their positions putting pressure on Rudy to gobble boards at a massive pace just to stay even with the other team. I could see Utah eventually succumbing to offensive rebounding woes as the season wears on.
Final thought on Utah: Matt Harpring has been the best analysis guy I’ve found on League Pass. I hope all my people in Salt Lake City are enjoying his talent.
Some quicker thoughts
*** The Clippers are a fascinating case study on defense. For the longest time it’s been thought that defense starts with an anchor in the mold of a Ben Wallace or Rudy Gobert protecting the paint, with everything else falling in line behind that.
The Clips, however, project as a great defensive team despite minimal rim protection. Obviously, one season will be a small sample, but I’m excited to see the defensive ratings of lineup that feature Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Patrick Beverly turn out. It’ll be interesting to see just how far a defense built almost exclusively on the strength of its perimeter can go. Not only will it be interesting as a means to further our learning of the game, but it will also be one of the biggest questions in deciding who comes out of the west.
***Depending on how you categorize what position everyone plays, Alex Caruso might be the best guard on the Lakers. Obviously, he’s not better than Lebron or Danny Green if you consider them guards (to me Lebron is a PG where Green has been more SF this year), but Caruso is a better overall player than Rondo, Bradley and KCP.
Imagine two years ago hearing that Caruso was going to be the best guard on the team in 24 months. I might have actually felt bad for Lakers fans for once. Instead here they are sitting at 19-3. The NBA is weird sometimes.
***It isn’t a very populous place, but I’m moving to Shai Gilgeous Alexander over Trae Young island.
Trae Young is already an all star offensively, and ought to remain their for the next decade. Still, the defense is atrocious. Literally the worst in the league. He’s a guy that projects to compete for scoring titles while leading his team to win totals that start with a 3 for the foreseeable future. He’s a weak alpha, without the skillset to slide to a more complimentary role.
SGA is the opposite. His greatest strength maybe the lack of a weakness going forward. He’s a plus shooter, but not an earth scorcher. He can capably be a lead guard, but is more of a plus as a secondary pick and roll guy. He’s not hyper athletic, but is super smooth getting to the hole. He’s got the size to defend the 1 through 3.
In a couple years he’ll be able to compliment a bigger star offensively, while taking charge of bench units when said star is resting, all the while giving nothing back defensively. I don’t know if that’s a recipe for a lot of all star games, but that’s pretty much exactly what a a 3rd or 4th best player on a championship team looks like.
***How do you describe Karl Anthony Towns? I’ve never seen anyone remotely similar to him. Not only is he a 7 footer taking and making 3s at a rate like a mutant Ray Allen, but it’s the way he does it. With that skillset you’d think he’d be one of the most entertaining players to watch, but between his shooting motion, the lumbering way in which he runs, and general slouched over posture it always takes my brain a quarter to appreciate the brilliance of what I’m witnessing.
***Ive officially watched enough James Harden this year that I’m all for the 1 free throw rule. Basketball is at its best when the game is in motion. The less time wasted on free throws the better. Not calling every 50/50 travel on a drive off a close, and letting a little more hand checking off the ball would be welcome changes as well.
***Detroit might be in the worst spot in the league as far not having that many good players, not that many young players, and nobody who is both. Even the Knicks have a few interesting young pieces, lots of projected cap room, an easy upgrade in their back pocket when they make their next coaching change, and a market big time players want to go to. Detroit has………hope Blake Griffin, Derrick Rose, and Andre Drummond can stay healthy to chase .500 and earn he right to get torn to pieces by Milwaukee this April?
There is a little light in this sea of darkness. Save me a spot on the Christian Wood bandwagon. All this guy has done is be the best player in the G League over the course of the past few years and produce when given an opportunity in the League. He’s got a good enough stroke, and enough bounce to compliment both of Detroit’s stalwart bigs when he shares the floor with him. Here’s to hoping he finally found the right home. Both he and the Pistons could use a little luck.
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