With the trade deadline a little over a week away its time to take a look at some of the moves the Bulls SHOULD be making before February 6th. I emphasized the should because this exercise is what I would do to try and make the Bulls championship contenders as quickly as possible. This is not what I expect John Paxson to do, which is more likely to be window dressing of the mess he’s made.
As the Bulls new czar of basketball operations, I’m punting on the rest of this season with the sole focus of trying to make us look as attractive as possible to Giannis, Lebron, Kawhi, Paul George, maybe Anthony Davis, and everyone else involved in the absolutely loaded 2021 Free Agent class.
The Big Question
Zach Lavine is the hardest part to figure out going forward. I’m comfortably between the two camps of team “Lavine is an obvious All-Star”, and the “he’s just a glorified chucker/6th man” school of though populating Twitter.
On one hand he clearly isn’t quite there as a truly upper echelon scorer in the Harden/Curry mold. What keeps him from even being in the Trae Young/Kemba Walker class offensively is the lack of playmaking skills. Zach’s FGA to assist ratio isn’t good enough for a guy in his role. It’s almost as if his athleticism is a detriment sometimes in this regard. He can put himself in positions to get off shots that most could never even think of. However, at least once a game you’ll find an instance where getting that shot off comes at the expense of missing Lauri Markannan wide open behind the arc.
Still the guy can score efficiently on a heavy volume of shots. Generating points is the point of the game after all, and Zach does it on a level that’s only 15 or so guys on the planet are capable of.
He’s also grading out higher defensively than he’s ever had in the past, and putting up career high steal rates. Even with the improvements he’s still below average on that side of the court as he’s still slow to rotate at times, and doesn’t give enough effort in transition or on the boards.
Add it all up and that’s a guy who’s more finge star than All-Star. That’s fine considering what he gets paid. Further more, when you start to factor in his age and unreal physical talent it still isn’t completely unrealistic to hope their is another half grade development around the corner as a passer and defender.
The issue with the team is that Lavine is being asked to be an alpha for this group. For as much as he’s improved throughout his career he’s clearly in the bottom third of “quarterbacks” in the league. I think Zach would grade out significantly better analytically if he got to play in a Khris Middleton in Milwaukee role. He’d excel as spot up shooter, secondary pick and roll guy, who gets to run the offense when the actual superstar is catching his breath. Combine that and having a huge Lopez twin behind him in a simpler defensive scheme and that might bring out an actual all star performance.
I’d try and see if a reactionary front office like Sacramento or Atlanta was feeling a little pressure to start winning right now and were willing to throw an unprotected first rounder in with salary filler like Chandler Parsons or Kent Bazemore for Lavine.
Add it all up and unless there is at least a Mike Conley level offer including multiple first round draft picks I would rather try and clear space for 2 max free agents around Zach in 2021 rather get a middling first round pick in a weak draft right now.
The Recent Free Agents
Both Tomas Satoransky and Thaddeus Young came with a fair amount of acclaim when they were added to the roster last summer as veterans who plugged holes by being able to contribute without needing the ball in their hands all the time. A half a year later they both have more or less met expectations (Sato for sure. Young is more debatable, but I’d still say it’s hard to argue he’s been a disappointment). It’s totally fine if both of these guys are still on the roster come February 7th. Still, since they both have some guaranteed money for the 2021 season I’d like to find them new homes on the chance that cap space comes of use.
That being said, getting rid of Satoransky just to get rid of him makes no sense. At very minimum he’s a capable starter with a salary more in line of a bench guy. The absolute minimum to move him would be recouping the two second round draft picks it took to acquire him without taking on any dead money past next year. Would the Lakers package two seconds (or 1 second rounder with Talen Horton Tucker) with the expiring contracts of Avery Bradley and Demarcus Cousins? Houston and Philly are two other teams I could see making similar offers.
Young on the other hand I would salary dump if possible. He’s making more money and doesn’t fit on this roster as well. Additionally, he is already on the wrong side of 30. The contract is probably underwater, and he’s apparently (and justifiably) not happy with his playing time. If the Heat wanted him for Meyers Leonard, the Clippers for Mo Harkless, or Portland for Hassan Whiteside (although I’d try and get them to attach their 2022 second rounder as the ticket to getting them out of the luxury tax). Even a swap for Bismack Biyombo or Evan Turner would work.
Cashing in on old Lottery picks
Coming into this season Kris Dunn and Denzel Valentine have flashed potential at various points throughout their careers, but have had a hard time with consistency and health. This year their respective routes have veered in different directions as Dunn has turned into arguably the best perimeter defender in the league night in and night out, while Valentine has been behind Shaquille Harrison in the rotation most of the season for reasons that are only clear in the bald head of Jim Boylen (who’s been fired by the way now that I’m calling the shots).
Ive seen it argued that the Bulls should be trying to trade Dunn for something valuable before the deadline. I understand the logic, but though there are a couple reasons why I don’t see it happening.
One is Dunn himself. He’s shooting just 25% from the 3 point line. In a playoff series, which is where a team that’s acquiring Dunn has to think of how well he’ll fit, will teams be able to just muck up the paint and freely help off Dunn at all times? If so, he’s not good enough to have an offense run through him obviously, so it’s possible that he might become unplayable a la Tony Allen or Andre Roberson in a deep playoff series. I don’t see him fetching a first round draft pick with free agency 30 games away.
The other reason I’m probably holding onto him is with the way the free agency is shaping up. Only 5 teams are projected to have any kind of cap space this offseason. All of them are rebuilding teams that don’t really figure to throw major offers for role players over the age of 25 (although you never know with the Knicks I guess). In a market like that it’s hard to imagine Dunn getting anymore than the mid level exception. While Dunn is no star he’s good value at the roughly $10 million/year it looks like he’s in line to make. And if he ever develops even an average 3 point shot he can become our version of Marcus Smart. That’d be an absolute steal. Give him 4 years and a hair over $40 million with the last year not fully guaranteed and a declining annual salary that makes him easier to trade in case it’s required to land a second max guy 2 summers from now, and everyone goes home happy.
Denzel Valentine should be on every other GM’s buy low list right now. He’s roughly a 40% 3 point shooter, who is more than capable of running an effective pick and roll, and only a little below average defensively. It’s honestly unfathomable that he has not been able to secure more playing time on a team so deprived of any kind of offensive oomph. If he and Coby White switched the number of minutes they’ve played this season the Bulls would be the current 8 seed in the East.
However, since Boylen is now gone in this hypothetical we’re going to find out what Denzel looks like getting at least 20 minutes a game in a Bulls uniform rather than another one.
Everyone else
Everybody else on the roster is potentially a part of the next good Bulls team, or nobody would realistically want (although I guess it wouldn’t hurt to at least call Mitch Kupcheck about Cristiano Feliciao). Some might disagree on that when it comes to Otto Porter, but I can’t see anyone really wanting Porter at that dollar amount with the injury issues he’s had the past couple years.
Verdict
While it is in fact hard to find deals that work there ought to be moves available for the 2 Free Agent signings this summer.
Any of the Young offers discussed earlier suffice. For the sake of this exercise I’m moving him to LA for Mo Harkless. It’s debatable as to who’s a better player, but Young makes more sense for their roster with Harkless’ skillset already found in spades on the current Clips roster with Kawhi and Paul George. The Clips don’t have a true 4 you’d really trust come playoff time and Young can provide that. They’ve apparently shown interest and him being under contract for 2 more years may not be an issue as they won’t have any cap space to add to the team these next couple off seasons.
Harkless comes over more for his salary, but would also be a welcome addition. He’d give the Bulls a true wing they’ve been missing since Porter got injured. He’s also got sufficient size to at least cover some of the minutes Young played as the backup 4 once everyone gets healthy. If all works out it’d be fine to bring him back in the offseason at a similar dollar amount to serve as a 1 year stopgap.
Outside of that, I’d see If the Lakers chomp at the offer for Sato I made earlier (2 expiring contracts and 2 second rounders). Satoransky’s versatility would fit perfectly for that team and they’re clearly in win at all costs this year mode. Enjoy the conference finals you two!
After that, I’d stay put.
The way things are playing out it looks like the Bulls will have yet another top 10 draft pick this year, and probably next year as well. While this draft doesn’t appear particularly strong they should be able to add two more future starters the next 2 years.
If all goes to plan the Bulls will have a bunch of cap space and a tun of valuable young assets (Carter, Lauri, White, Gafford and 2 more probable lottery picks) to acquire multiple stars and still fill in pieces after. I’d go after Giannis, see if AD could convince Lebron to follow him home, or see if the Clippers were ready to breakup. Even if you couldn’t land one of the big fish there are plenty of guys in the Victor Oladipo class of borderline all stars scheduled to be available. I’d also bet on that being the summer the Sixers finally make their big move on deciding between Simmons and Embiid to build around going forward, and trading the other.
Would the Sixers bite on a combo of Lavine and the Bulls two most recent first round draft picks for Simmons? Would he be a big enough star to lure AD home? Could the Bulls find a way to get 3 stars by targeting a younger PG like Trae Young, Ja Morant or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vía trade and having enough cap room for 2 more stars?
I don’t know the answer to any of that, but the idea is way more exciting than seeing if Zach Lavine can drag this team to 35 wins and an embarrassing 8 seed beat down at the hands of the Bucks these next two seasons. Be competitive, build for the future, and see what the rolling of the dice brings come 2021.
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