After being a laughingstock around the league with an absolute clown of a coach combined with a prehistoric Front Office calling the shots for a cheapskate owner before everything shut down due to the Coronavirus, it feels so good to have something moderately interesting to talk about with the Bulls again.
As written elsewhere I am not a huge believer in neither new team architect Arturas Karnisovas nor coach Billy Donovan. Still, they represent a level of respectability and upside that this team hasn’t generated in years. This tends to be the apex of Jerry Reinsdorf led teams, respectable figures in the most important positions offering a glimmer of hope that if everything breaks right you can have an ’05 Sox moment. (Thank God Jerry doesn’t care about this team as much as the Sox, otherwise Phil Jackson would be teaching Tomas Satoransky how to run the triangle right as we were finding out he got arrested for running a shrooms operation in Montana.)
In this piece I’ll go through who I’d like the Bulls to draft and sign in free agency trying to be as realistic as possible. For the record, AK is 0 for 3 in moves I would’ve made so far in tendering contracts to restricted Free Agents. (I like Denzel, but who was going to give him $4.7 million? Shaq Harrison is a little reDunndant with Kris, but I would’ve liked to keep one of them at their respective numbers if possible as the steal rates both guys have were elite even if they were both somewhat artificially inflated by Boylen’s goofy scheme.). None of those moves really move the needle, and are more clues into the style the team would like to play rather than really bad moves. I bet both Harrison and Dunn wind up going to really smart teams though.
Ideas for the Draft
The dream scenario is easy…..hope and pray that Lamelo Ball falls to #4. While he isn’t a “safe” pick, the way the game is being played he’s got the only semi reasonable path for becoming a queen piece in the game of chess that is the modern NBA. Every NBA contender has a guy big enough to play on the wing combined with the ability to get to the paint and score/create for others: AND is either an elite 3 point shooter or defender OR at least average at both as the foundation of their team. Lebron, Giannis, Kawhi, Jimmy Butler, Jokic, Harden, maybe KD, Luka and Tatum are probably the next in line all fit this mold. It’s almost as binary as you either have one of these guys and you can compete for titles, or you don’t have one and you can’t. Steph Curry with the Warriors is the only real exception, and that’s because he’s the greatest 3 point shooter in history by a fairly wide margin.
Now is Ball likely to get that level? Undoubtedly no. Over the past 20 years, only Lebron and maybe Luka have projected to be that good coming out of the draft. However, starting at 6’7″ with an elite first step and the kind of vision and feel that you can’t teach means you can probably check the first box off on the “will this guy be a star?” list. The red flags certainly exist, he only shot 25% from 3, scouts didn’t like his defense, his dad is annoying and he only played 11 games last year.
Stepping back further he’s 18 years old, his free throw shooting indicates he doesn’t have bad touch and his steal rate shows that he can at least read defenses. The outlines for the queen piece is there in a way no other prospect in this draft demonstrates. Even if he doesn’t get there being a prime John Wall kind of player isn’t a bad investment with #1 pick, although there is a non-zero chance he’s a total flop and becomes nothing more than a taller Rondo/Michael Carter-Williams type. At the end of the day he’s worth pursuing.
I have seen mocks where he actually has slipped all the way to 4, but that still seems more unlikely than not. I’d be willing to package assets to go and get him. From what the Bulls pieces that other teams might want here’s how much I’d prioritize keeping them.
- The #4 pick
- Coby White
- Wendell Carter
- Lauri Markannen
- Zach Lavine
- Daniel Gafford
Would the Wolves trade the #1 pick for Lauri and the #4 pick? Would swapping Lauri out for Carter with them throwing in Culver make more sense for both teams. These are conversations I hope AK is having (also worth noting that he worked with Gersan Rosas, the guy running Minnesota, back in the day with Houston). There is one trade I like more than all others that I’ll get to in a second.
If a Ball trade/slip in the fails to materialize there are a couple of other moves I’d be Ok with the Bulls pursuing. In no particular order
- Trading down. This draft is pretty weak at the top, so getting more bites at the apple makes sense. Boston is one team in particular that jumps out as a team that could consolidate multiple picks. They have the 14th, 26th and 30th pick in the draft. I wouldn’t mind seeing that deal go down where the Bulls take RJ Hampton, Aleksej Pokusevski and Tre Jones with those picks. Hampton is as good as Isaac Okoro and Patrick Williams, mid lottery guys, only he might fall out of the lottery. Aleksej Pokusevski is the biggest wild card you’ll find this year. He’s the youngest guy in the draft, 7 feet tall and moves like a guard with plus passing skills and solid 3 point stroke. He’s also rawer than raw. I didn’t know it was possible to be over 7 feet tall and under 200 pounds. The kid somehow makes Chris Sale look like the Rock. He could become a midpoint between Giannis and KP or he could be worse than Nikoloz Tskitishvili and I wouldn’t be surprised. At 26 that roll of the dice makes sense. Tre Jones was the best player in the toughest conference in America last year. He doesn’t have physical tools nor a statistical projection that would tell you a future star is imminent, but I feel confident saying he’ll be a good backup and there is even a chance he develops into a solid second rate starter.
2. Draft a slipping Anthony Edwards or “reach” for Tyrese Halliburton. Edwards might be the consensus best player on the board, but like Ball there is a chance he falls to 4. While I think he’s somewhat overrated by the general scouting community, the upside for a potential Bradley Beal or Victor Oladipo kind of player down the road is apparent. Still when compared to Ball I’d rather have a peak John Wall type, than a peak Bradley Beal type, and I think Ball is slightly more likely to get to that level than Edwards.
Haliburton is seen as more of a mid lottery guy than top 5 pick, but I think that’s a misread. While the jump shot is a little funky the numbers show it goes in a lot, and he demonstrated tuns of versatility while grabbing 6 boards, dishing out 6 assists, and getting 2 and a half steals per game. It’s very unlikely he becomes a star, but outside of the most elite of ball handlers, this kind of not super explosive athlete is the kind of player generally undervalued in scouting circles. I’d be satisfied to get a Malcolm Brogdon type with the #4 pick in this years draft.
What I don’t want to see the Bulls do is take Advija or Williams at 4 as some rumors are suggesting. Both of those guys are fine, but it’d produce much more expected value at that time to trade back even if it were a somewhat “light package”. Normally the 8 pick and 23 pick wouldn’t be enough to move up to 4, but I’d rather do that and take one of the wings that falls between Williams, Advija, Okoro or Vassell (or even Haliburton or RJ Hampton), then be the first to choose between a bunch of guys who all project in the same tier.
The Dream Move
As it seems more likely than not Ball won’t be available at 4, the play is to cash in on some chips and make a play for him. My favorite deal:
Zach Lavine and Thad Young to the Warriors and the #2 pick
I love this deal for both teams. Right now the Warriors have nobody on their team capable of creating their own shot other than oft-injured Curry. Enter Zach Lavine who finally gets to play in the role he’s designed for: secondary option next to a superstar creator. Zach then more or less runs the show with Curry on the bench. He has Dray and Klay around to help and hide defensively. Its a near perfect fit. Young is overpriced, but he’s the kind of switch-y defender Golden State builds their system around and is a high IQ passer capable of spacing the floor to fit seamlessly into their offense.
For the Bulls they give up a couple fair priced veterans who may not even be on the team the next time this team is ready to make serious noise in the playoffs to get the guy with the most potential for superstardom in the draft. Having to take on the Wiggins contract hurts a lot, but a worthwhile price to pay considering their immediate prospects.
If you really want to go crazy with this, adding Lauri Markannen or maybe even Wendell Carter from the Bulls along with the Minnesota pick the Warriors got in the Russell deal would make sense as well.
Second Round Options
My favorite realistic option would be local product Paul Reed. He has the length and athleticism you look for in an ideal wing defender with huge numbers to back it up (he averaged 4.5 stocks/game this year at Depaul). The question of course like a lot of these guys is of course: can they shoot enough to space the floor and stick in the league? The answer is I don’t know, but nothing indicates he’s any worse gamble than guys like Jaden McDaniels and Tyler Bey who most have going at the end of the first round.
If he’s not available I’d look at any of the plethora of smaller, not super athletic yet very successful college point guards available. Every year it seems like teams miss on a point guard who fits that mold (Fred Van Vleet, Monte Morris, Devonte Graham). They are like the smaller versions of my guy Tyrese Haliburton. I wouldn’t predict anyone of them by themselves is more likely than not to develop into a strong rotation piece, but I bet one of the Malachi Flynn, Cassius Winston, or Payton Pritchard trio does.
The last guy on the list would be Xavier Tillman. He led the nation in Box Plus Minus last year and is a year younger than Obi Toppin. He’s got enough of an all around game that it doesn’t take much to imagine him becoming a very sold 3rd big man for a team in the not too distant future.
I’m hoping to write more on Free Agency coming up here soon! Let me know what you think and fingers crossed for tonight.
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