It’s around this time every year where I like to take the stock on the overall state of the White Sox organization. 2019 has had it’s promising moments, but it’s still generous to call this even a mediocre club. There are a couple of different paths the Sox could take to being a darkhorse contender starting as early as next year that would require an unexpected spike in internal development from our young players, or a willingness to spend big time money in free agency. When looking at the White Sox’s track record this means barring a completely unforeseen change in approach to Free Agency or player development it looks like 2020 will be yet another rebuilding year on the Southside. 2021 is the most realistic time to expect the White Sox to be able to compete for a playoff spot. With that in mind I am going to go through the Sox position by position and see how the individual players are projected to perform come ’21.
For the first part of this project I am going to start with the position players and then I’ll work my way to the pitchers.
5 WAR Tier
3B:Yoan Moncada
The 70 grade, top prospect in baseball, who’s tools were begging for a breakout made his appearance this year. Moncada is on pace for a 5 WAR season and should have been an All-Star this year. It’s more likely than not his BABIP will probably regress in the future, but there is a solid chance that will be more than canceled out by improvement in defense and his right-handed swing. He’s the most important player for at least the three years before he hits free agency. The Red Sox will never regret the Chris Sale trade after he corkscrewed Manny Machado into the ground to win the World Series. That being said Moncada is showing flashes that could easily make this trade a win for our Sox as well.
4 WAR Tier
(intentionally left blank)
This is the part where things start to get scary. While the Sox have plenty of guys who should be league average regulars or a little more, they don’t have anyone who projects particularly close to being that second star to compliment Moncada.
3 WAR Tier
SS: Tim Anderson
I expect Timmy to continue to be the above average player who tantalizes us with potential for stardom that he never quite reaches. Looking at it on a more macro level he’s the perfect continuation from the Alexei Ramirez experience and even Jose Valentin experience if you go a little further back.
Defensively, he’ll boot more balls than he should, but also make some outstanding plays that make up for it. He’s going to post laughably bad walk rates, but make up for it on the bases. The power and batting average will come and go. He might have a season or 2 where everything clicks and he’s an all star and he might have others where it doesn’t and he’ll hover around 1 WAR.
RF: Eloy Jiminez
Eloy has started to find his groove after a rough start to his big league career. He has some of the easiest power you’ll find in the sport and a solid feel for hitting. I expect him to grow into an offensive firepower starting next year.
Still, he is already is a below average glove in the outfield corners and doesn’t have the kind of frame where you can expect his athleticism to age gracefully. Ultimately, he should become one of the better hitters in the American League, yet not quite a star due to having no value outside of the bat.
CF: Luis Robert
Robert is enjoying the healthy breakout season the Sox have been waiting for ever since signing him to a record breaking contract out of Cuba two years ago. The talent was always obvious. He is the proverbial 5 tool prospect, who is putting them all together and become a top 10 prospect.
I toyed with the thought of putting him higher, but there is too much injury risk and swing and miss against top competition for me to project him as anything more than just above average starter going forward.
1B: Andrew Vaughn
Some folks scoffed at the Sox taking a 1st basemen with the third overall pick after the relative struggles of Collins, Burger, Sheets and others.
I was not a member of this choir. Vaughn is not just some college first baseman, he was a historically great offensive producer at Cal with plus power, hitting, and strike zone judgment. Like Eloy above he has virtually no value outside of his hitting so he won’t become a superstar, however, a guy with this kind of hitting pedigree should at the very least become an above average big league hitter. He could be our new Paul Konerko.
2B: Nick Madrigal
If nothing else I’m cheering for Madrigal for his unorthodox/throw back style. His strike out rate is outlandishly low, and it should be fun to watch him put the ball in play. His ability to make contact means he might be able to hit .300 at least somewhat consistently. Combine that with good defense at a key position, and he ought to be a 3 WAR guy even if he only clubs 5 homers a year.
2 WAR
Probably not a good thing that this is area is left blank either
1 WAR
LF: Luis Basabe/Steele Walker/Blake Rutherford/Luis Gonzalez
All of these guys project as something like 4 outfielders or AAAA players. With that caveat, just one of them needs to overachieve a little bit to become a solid, second rate starter on the southside. Given the Sox’ track record cultivating talent it would be silly to hope for unexpected positive development, but even then the sheer quantity that makes up this list means the math says one should do it.
I have them listed in order of likelihood of becoming perennial 1.5-2 WAR players. Basabe (somewhat surprisingly) is the youngest and regarded as the best defensive player of the bunch. I think his power will come back as he gets further away from his most recent injury. It’s also worth noting that in general it takes switch hitters more time to develop their hitting ability. Gonzalez, Rutherford and Walker all more fall into the category of corner outfielders too old to have not hit well at AA to get excited about. All pretty much have to perform next year or it will be time to think about writing them off.
0 WAR
C: ?
While James McCann’s season has been a pleasant surprise I’m not sure how much of it is sustainable, nor is he under contract for the 2021 season. Looking into the minors doesn’t provide much hope either. Seby Zavala isn’t putting up big numbers in AAA which is worrisome. When guys like Charlie Tilson and Adam Engel hit the cover off the ball in Charlotte, then look completely over-matched when they get to the show, it’s hard to see Zavala being able to make it in the majors.
This is probably the position most likely the White Sox are going to have to acquire talent from outside the organization for their next competitive run.
DH: Micker Adolfo/Zach Collins
I’m not sure if you can find two prospects that personify the White Sox’s inability to identify and cultivate young talent like this duo. Between the former top 10 pick and famous international signing we’ve got a long list of injuries, mis-evaluated defensive ability that led to a slide down the defensive spectrum (that other organizations saw coming), complete with the inability to compensate for the loss with the glove at the plate due to too many strikeouts.
I hold out a little hope that it will click for one of the two of them, but we are very close to reaching the point where we have to add them to the list of disappointments during the Hahn era.
As for the pitching
SP:
5 WAR
Lucas Giolito: I had him at a 4 WAR when I first started working on this project a couple weeks ago as means of protecting myself from regression next year. But even if regression hit, he could still hit 5 WAR with the pace he’s on this year. Giolito has been so legitimately good he deserves some Cy Young votes this year. I think the mechanical changes and confidence in his ability are here to stay, and will make him one of the best starters in baseball going forward.
4 WAR
(see comment from earlier about the position player side 4 war category)
3 WAR
Michael Kopech: It’s hard to project him going forward without seeing how he will from Tommy John surgery. That being said his stuff was as good as anyone’s before the injury and the command was improving as well. If he comes back strong and becomes a borderline ace come 2021 I wouldn’t be surprised. If the TJ is just a sign of things to come and he’s injured again come 2021 I wouldn’t be surprised. The 3 WAR tier is the safe spot between those two zones.
Dylan Cease: 2019 hasn’t been an amazing year for Cease, but his outlook going forward looks about the same. The upper echelon velocity and power curveball mean he shouldn’t have much trouble putting up big strikeout numbers. Still, when you combine that he walks too many guys and the smaller frame you can see why some wonder if he wouldn’t be better off as a power arm coming out of the bullpen. The consensus seems to lean more towards mid rotation arm, and that’s where I’ve got him.
2 WAR
Reynaldo Lopez
This appears to be what Lopez is. A solid #4 or 5 starter who’s value is going to fluctuate a lot depending on if the flyballs he’s giving up leave the park or not. In a perfect world the rest of the more interesting arms develop well so that the Sox can move him to the bullpen and see if he can dominate when he doesn’t have to go through the order a second time. Alas, I wanted to keep expectations as reasonable as possible for this exercise, and Reylo looks like one of the best 5 going forward.
Carlos Rodon or Dane Dunning: More TJ guys with uncertainty. Rodon has pitched a little above this level when he’s been healthy, but as stated above projecting guys coming off that injury can be difficult. If he’s not ready Dunning looked like a future #4 guy before his own elbow gave out. If his stuff comes back he might be ready to hold down the back end of the rotation by 2021.
Bullpen:
I don’t really believe in using WAR to evaluate bullpen pieces going forward, but with the sheer number of live arms the Sox have this projects as a strong unit going forward. Fry and Bummer already make a strong 1/2 coming from the left side and the Sox should turn out at least 1 or 2 good arms between Fulmer, Burdi, Hansen, Lambert, Covey, Cordero, Frare, etc. There’s a decent chance one of the guys currently in the rotation (most likely Cease or Lopez) turn into a weapon out of the bullpen if they get bumped by free agent or trade addition. They can also turn to Free Agency and see if they can do better than Kelvin Herrera this time.
Conclusion:
This core looks decent, but by itself looks like nothing more than just a .500 team. The Sox need to use the next two off-seasons to target the right talent to fill some of these projected holes and get to the next level. It’d be great if the Sox acquired Gerrit Cole, Marcell Ozuna and Yasmani Grandal this offseaon. I want to live in a world where Jerry realizes he doesn’t get to keep his money when he croaks. History says that is not in the cards though. I think it’s not an unreasonable midpoint to think the Sox will make a move for somebody like Grandal who won’t cost a tun, but is a clear plus player moving forward at a position of need. Using 2020 as the final year of evaluating where everyone is at before starting to become buyers on the trade market is not the worst move. If things go to plan the Sox can use 2021 to sign the biggest Free Agent in team history to plug another hole, trade some prospects for another big time player, finally get it right on a relief arm, and we might have ourselves the 2021 AL Central Division Champs.
If the Sox aren’t competitive by that point though, then everyone needs to go. Renteria, Hahn, Kenny, Chris Getz, Steve Stone, South Paw, and have someone from the outside start the rebuild by seeing if they can get even more for Moncada and Giolito than Hahn did for Sale and Eaton.
This next two off-seasons are crucial. Get it right and these 3 or 4 years will be worth it. Get it wrong and we should all think about becoming Padres fans.
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