Last year before the start of the NBA season I made a list of the 100 best players in the NBA. This year I’m doing the project a little differently: The top 30 players in the League I would start my franchise around if there was a league wide “fantasy draft”. As your reading this view it as a big board. However, depending on the the pick, particularly towards the end of the 1st round my strategy would probably start to shift towards younger players. The players at the top of the draft give you such a big head start on the guys you’ll find in the 20’s, that logic says it’s probably best to play for a few years down the road if you weren’t lucky enough to procure one of those top couple of picks.
The big qualifier about this project is that contracts are NOT included. It’s hard enough to make this list without asking questions like “Would Anthony Davis sign long term after one year on my current team?” Rather, it’s more or less an exercise in how many Expected Championships Added are these players likely to produce throughout the rest of their careers. I start with the player now and see how he looks until he retires. Age and current playing level were the primary, yet not only, factors that went into making this list.
The plan is to make this a 3 part series. Today I am going to start with the 15 guys I had the hardest time cutting from the list and the last 7 that got in. I have each player ranked 1 to 30, but instead of just rote listing them in order, sometimes I broke up the list to better explain why I had a couple of players in the same “category” ranked the way that I do.
The just missed list
DeAndre Ayton
He’s going to be an above average player in the league for a long time. If he stays in Phoenix he’ll put up big numbers on fringe bottom 10 teams for the foreseeable future. All of that earned him a long look for this list, but at the end of the day it’s hard to reserve a spot for a big who neither defends the paint at a high level nor stretches the floor to the 3 point line. In a couple years we won’t be calling him a bust, but there 3 guys from his draft class that make this list who will make Suns fans wonder: what if?
Young (Stretch?) 4’s
Aaron Gordon
Lauri Markkanen
John Collins
All really solid young players who probably have to develop a little more than expected if they’re going to become All-stars. For Gordon and Collins that probably means another click or 2 up in their shooting and for Lauri it probably comes in the form of improving his shot creation ability or showing the ability to hold his own at the 5.
Interesting Young Guards
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Derrick White
Lonzo Ball
Trae Young
SGA looks perfect for the modern NBA. He can do everything you need from a PG with size that allows your defense to switch everything. For all the things he already can do he still projects as more of an above average across the board at everything kind of player who lacks that specific trait that’ll make him an all-star.
Derrick White is a guy who feels like he should be on this list, but then you realize he’s already 25. He came into the league so late that he’s only a year younger than Bradley Beal! At that age it’s more likely that you are what you are. In White’s case that means he is really good, but not top 30 guy in the league going forward good.
Lonzo Ball might be the most surprising name on this list, but I’m suuuuper high on him. Yeah his dad is unbelievably annoying, and the ability to score really isnt there. However, at 21 years old he is already an all star level rebounder, passer, and especially defensive player for his position. Point Guard is the position it takes longest to get comfortable playing, and shooting is the skill a player is most likely to improve on over the course of his career. I think playing in LA wasn’t the right fit for him and by heading over to New Orleans he will have a similar leap to another former #2 pick by the Lakers, D’Angelo Russell, (more on him later in this list) had by getting out of there. If there was one young guy in the league I was betting on “making the leap” it would be him.
I think Trae Young would crack the top 30 of these lists for a lot of other people, but he’s kind of the anti Lonzo Ball to me. The shooting is already so good it’s hard to project it getting much better as he ages, and the defense is so far away from adequacy that he’d still be a real negative if he made bigger improvements than most players his age. While there is a possibility he finds way to overcome his athletic deficiencies defensively, and evolves from really good shooter to an elite one and becomes a Damian Lillard kind of player, there are more future outcomes where in his prime he becomes 90-95% of the current Kemba Walker. That’s a really good player, but not good enough.
2 Way Wings that fell just short
Victor Oladipo
Khris Middleton
Otto Porter Jr.
Jaylen Brown
Oladipo was a guy who made the original list, but when I got a little deeper into it I wound up removing him. At 27 he already is closer to being on the older side than the younger side. And while he was arguably a top 10 player in the 2017-18 season, he’s been pretty much just an above average starter every other year of his career. Factor in a big time knee injury and he went sliding down.
Khris Middleton is probably a top 30 player in the league right now, but at the age of 28 for how much longer? Porter is 3 years younger, but just on the outside looking in from the current top 30 and there isn’t an obvious route for improvement getting there. He just misses as well.
Jaylen Brown is probably currently a half tier below the rest of these guys, but still has his prime in front of him. If he shoots 40% from downtown like he did year 2 of his career, instead of the 34% of his third year he belongs on the list. That being said, the 40% looks like the outlier from the rest of his resume, and I’d bet on him being just shy of an all star for the majority of the prime of his career.
2 Cuts that Really hurt
Draymond Green
Marcus Smart
These are two of my favorite players in the league. Smart has taken the torch from Manu Ginobli as the guy who is hard to describe from a scouting perspective just how valuable the guy is. The dude just does random shit that wins you games. He has an 80 grade feel for the sport, is an absolute beast defensively, and doesn’t get enough credit for his playmaking skills. Still, a fringe top 50 player who’s now in his prime is a second round pick, not a first for this exercise.
I like to say that Green is the closest thing the League has seen to Bill Russell since Boston’s GOAT retired. He’s a top 10 player in the league when he revs up his engine come playoff time, and the player most greatly underappreciated by causal fans today. I don’t like Draymond Green’s game, I love it. So how did I not find a spot for him on the list? Primarily it is that his skill-set as an undersized player for his position with a shaky jump shot on the wrong side of 30 scares me. On top of that, there are still questions of what his game would look like outside of Golden State’s ecosystem and how much of his greatness is tied to being on the same team as Steph Curry. Add it all up, and ultimately he comes up just a little short, even though it doesn’t feel right.
Last 3 Out
Kemba Walker
Kyle Lowry
Kevin Durant
Kemba was a deserving 3rd team all NBA selection last season, and is a no doubt top 30 player in the league currently. The problem is that a smaller point guard at the age of 29 he doesn’t project to stay there much longer.
I’ve been hyping Kyle Lowry for a long time and I was ecstatic for him when he proved that he could be the second best player on a championship team. His IQ and shooting ability mean that he will be able to play for a while, but I doubt he’s got more than another year as a top 15 player in the league if that.
Kevin Durant is going to be the biggest omission from this list for most. I thought he would be on the list when I first went through it, but the more it got broken down the more he slipped until eventually he fell off. Even when he was 100%, he wasn’t a top 5 player for me (Lebron, Steph, Harden, Giannis, and Kawhi), and now he suffers the most devastating injury in the sport? A lot of people are saying this is just a 1 year thing, and he’ll be back to normal. Ask Boogie Cousins how that worked out for him. Durant is no spring chicken either. Checking in at 31 years old he’s on the downside of his career. He always projected to age effectively with his plus-plus shooting and size, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this injury at this age sap his ability to effectively guard on the perimeter and force him to be nothing more than a 4 for the rest of his career. I’d say it’s rosy to project KD to coming back at more than 85% and even if he does that, he’s more of an All-Star cause he gets to play in the East than superstar who you build your team around. There’s a real strong argument to get him on this list, but for me he comes up just one spot short.
The List
The 7 Footers
30. Mitchell Robinson
28. Rudy Gobert
27. Kristaps Porzingis
Robinson is almost assuredly the most surprising name on this list. That’s fine, I want to buy all the stock I can get on this guy now. What’s pacticularly surprising is that the ultra athletic rim-running 5 isn’t my kind of player. These guys are all over the place. Neither Steven Adams nor Clint Capela even made my just missed list. Last year’s #1 pick DeAndre Ayton found his place in the 40’s. So why is Robinson so high?
When looking at his size and athleticism the names that come up the most are DeAndre Jordan and Andre Drummond. However, when you get past that you start to see the the block shot rate, field goal percentage, and offensive rebounding dominance and there’s a lot of potential for a Rudy Gobert, or dare I even say prime Dwight Howard in here. The most likely outcome is obviously somewhere in the middle of all those names, but even that is an occasional All-Star. I think he’ll have an 8 year or so run as a top 40 player in the league
Rudy Gobert lacks the scoring ability to be the best player on a championship team, but he could probably be the second right now. When looking at how quickly some defense first (or only) 5’s fell of the cliff historically (Ben Wallace, Dwight, Theo Ratliff) I’m a little worried how he’ll hold up long term though. Sneaking on to this list makes sense.
Porzingis is one of the tougher players to figure out. The advanced stats say he was a little overrated in New York, and durability is a major concern. What the advanced stats miss is that he spent a lot of time playing out of position, while being asked to be a main offensive creator while he’s more of a secondary option. Playing for a coaching staff that emphasized shooting a lot of mid-range jump-shots didn’t help the cause either. I expect his efficiency will rise playing in a more modern offense with playmakers around him. The injuries are scary, but I think there is value in taking chances on health. If he stays healthy he could be top 20 player in the league through the back half of the next decade.
The Next Generation of Guards you Hope can be the Second Best Players on Your Championship Team
29. Devin Booker
26. Jamal Murray
25. D’Angelo Russll
24. De’Aaron Fox
Booker has been the proverbial big stats on bad team player up to this point of his career. Still, he is really young and has made major strides each year in the League. He needs to become a better playmaker, defender and more consistent shooter if he’s ever going to get to a Bradley Beal peak, but I think he’s shown already that he’s already better than the Zach Lavine type of empty calorie bucket getter. There might be even more value when you factor in that players tend to take larger than normal leaps in their careers after leaving Phoenix.
A lot of advanced stats don’t love Murray, but a lot of that is more a function of the unique circumstance of playing Robin next to Nikola Jokic’s Batman rather him lacking the playmaking skills normally associated with elite guards. I think some of his raw numbers would look better playing outside of Denver. Those numbers don’t give the credit he deserves for molding his game around his super unique center. Like the Devin Booker max contract last summer, I changed my mind several times over whether or not I liked the deal the deal for the team. It will be interesting to see how their two careers play out.
Russell was a hard player to rank due to how very mediocre his entire career was until last year. That’s probably more a function of Point Guard being the position it takes the longest to get settled into in the league, and the fact that the situation he came up in with the Lakers (Kobe Bryant’s weird final year, and the whole recording his conversation with Nick Young) was………less than ideal for a young player coming into the league. The leaps he made last year are more likely here to stay than not. I think there are more all-stars in his future even though he might be a little overstated as his porous defense saps more value than most people realize it does.
De’Aaron Fox exploded last year and made the Kings an interesting team for the first time in a decade. He may in fact be the fastest player in the league and appears to be ascending towards stardom. Normally this is the kind of guy I would be all over, but I’m pumping the brakes a little bit compared to some. The main reason is, a lot of his breakout last year was tied to a breakout in 3 point shooting. At 37% last year he was above league average. If he can stay at that level then I’m all in on him becoming an All-Star and he’s roughly 10 spots too low. The thing is that he shot 14% from the shorter college 3-point line just two years ago. Some of that screams REGRESSION!!! to me. Even if he is just a little below average shooter for career his speed and passing will make him a plus point guard going forward.
That’s it for Part I. Hoping to have Part II out by the end of next week!
Bulls NBA HQ 