Preseason I made 8 different bets on over/unders. During the All-Star break I checked-in to see how things were going, where I went wrong/right or where I had some good or bad luck. I added a couple of thoughts on each bet and am sharing today.
My plays in order of bet size were:
1. San Antonio Spurs over 28.5
This has been a pretty annoying bet. The Spurs have actually outscored their opponents this year, but have a jarring discrepancy with their actual win loss record of 24-36. The underrated Derrick White being shipped off to Boston might make this a little more of a sweat than if ought to be, but as long as Murray stays healthy I don’t see Pop punting on a chance to go after the 10 seed.
2. Toronto Raptors over 35.5
I thought coming into the year the Raptors were more likely to finish above .500 than below making this a no brain play. So far they’ve done even better than expected. Losing Lowry was tough, but having an actual home court again and regressing to the mean on injury luck was all they really needed to just be average. They will beat this number with just 4 more wins.
3. Los Angeles Lakers under 52.5
Russell Westbrook hasn’t contributed to winning at a high level for years now and has been a predictably bad fit next to Lebron James. Veteran teams particularly tend to be overrated by the consensus coming into a season and this was the oldest team in the league. Already cashed!
4. Charlotte Hornets under 38.5
My first true miss. I thought Charlotte would be one of the worst teams in the league defensively and without a truly elite offensive force yet (good chance this changes when LaMelo hits his prime) they were going to be a mere above average offense and settle into the mid to low 30’s for win totals. The offense has gone exactly to plan, but credit to them for getting the defense to more respectable 22nd place ranking allowing them to be on a pace for 39-40 wins.
5. Washington Wizards over 33.5
Ooph! This looked to be a cakewalk to start the year when Washington came out with a 10-3 record. Noting what I said about the Lakers earlier, I never really saw Westbrook leaving town as that bad for Washington’s short-term success. A team with solid depth everywhere and a fringe top 20 player ought to be more in the high 30’s. There was a good chance they would’ve gotten there, but between Beal’s wrist injury and post trade Porzingis’ health, this one time sure bet is looking as rickety as KP’s knee. Still, they have enough depth, and are close enough to the play-in to remain motivated that finishing 7-14 and close this thing out is probably more likely than not.
6. Brooklyn Nets under 56.5
I wasn’t buying the hype in Brooklyn that they were overwhelming favorites out of the east, but wow did that get ugly quickly. Just like the Lakers they had a lot of overrated veteran pieces to go along with stars that had questions with health. The crazy part is that Brooklyn has actually been lucky when it comes to defensive 3 point shooting and have overperformed their point differential! Just a dumpster fire all around and will in all likelihood be betting strongly against them the rest of the season and into the playoffs.
7. Oklahoma City Thunder under 23.5
If there’s one bet that is basically a coinflip going forward it’s this one. On one hand, the Thunder are on pace to eclipse this record by about a game and a half. On the other, using history as reference, there is no team likely to tank as hard over the last month-plus. How much SGA, Lu Dort and Kenrich Williams are allowed to play will probably ultimately decide if the bet turns out a winner or not.
8. Golden State Warriors under 48.5
Whoops! :s
Adding it all up, we’ve got two bets that have already cashed, two more that almost certainly will, three that it’s still too early to tell (best guess is that I’ll get one of the three) and one big mistake. Considering 5-3 was the goal before the season started, I’m happy with the position I’m in. That record is the most likely outcome. Doing some back of the napkin math tells me 6-2 is even more likely than 4-4 right now (with an outside chance at 7-1 to boot). Now lets see how this season finishes.
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