Now that we’re roughly a third of the way through the NBA season let’s take stock on how how teams and players are doing thus far. After that I’ll do a quick look at how my preseason over/unders are doing. 

MVP Ballot

1. Lebron James
2. Giannis
3. James Harden
4. Luka Doncic
5. Jimmy Butler

I’ve changed my mind on 1 and 2 a half dozen times since starting to think about this. The conventional wisdom says that the Lakers resurgence ought to more or less be divided evenly between Lebron and AD. To me that’s as wrong as the Steph Curry/Kevin Durant thing. The tape and advanced numbers shows that AD is more reliant on Lebron to succeed at MVP level than the other way around. 

Ultimately, I had another tie in positions 4-7 where eventually I left AD off the top and decided that to counterbalance that I’d give Lebron the ever so slight edge over Giannis when divvying up credit. What I really love about Lebron this season is that while everyone is talking about how he’s leading the league in assists, it’s how he’s maintained his offensive efficiency while locking in defensively that’s impressed me the most. While Giannis’ spike in 3 point shooting has made him even better than the deserved MVP he was last year, it’s still ever so slightly behind Lebron playing at his highest regular season level since his Miami days. 

Harden was an easy 3 for me. I understand why some would have him higher, and he has been the best offensive player in the league thus far. However, he’s still behind the top 2 when you factor in team success, defense, and versatility in how many ways he can dominate the game. 

As mentioned earlier 4-7 is ridiculously hard to differentiate. Ultimately I went in the order of Doncic, Butler, AD and Embiid. Luka’s numbers are as good as as the 3 guys in front of him, but he’s the worst defensively and the Mavericks point differential is basically the same with him on and off the court. It’s crazy to see him at 4 though as most years I think he’d be top 2. The guy is almost averaging 30-10-10 as one of the leagues biggest breakouts. 

Everyone knows I’m the biggest Jimmy Butler stan around. Still I don’t think it takes a lot of bias to have him on my ballot. According to 538’s RAPTOR he’s the only player in the league in the top 15 offensively and defensively. Giannis is the only other guy who makes the the top 25 in both. Jimmy leads the league in steals, without ever hardly compromising the scheme by gambling. The Heat are also doing what I argued the Bulls should have done before they traded him and are letting him serve as the teams point guard. This has resulted in almost 7 assists a game all the while maintaining his efficiency. To top it off, he seems to be showing off positive leadership skills now that he’s finally found a home that fosters his competitive spirit. Bam Abedayo is nice, but outside of him is their anyone else on that team you’d argue is a top 100 player in the Lesgue right now? The Heat have some nice depth and Spo is a hell of a coach, but this team is on pace for 55 wins primarily because of the guy who wears #22.  

Leaving AD off was hard, but ultimately there wasn’t room for a second banana in this years loaded race.

Best Projected Teams for the Rest of the Regular Season

1. Milwaukee
2. Lakers 
3. Nuggets
4. Clippers
5. Rockets

Milwaukee was my projected top regular season team coming into the year and is off to an absolutely blistering hot start. I understand the concern that they’re built in a way that’s more geared to regular season success than postseason success, but barring an injury to Giannis there is no team I’d take over them during the rest of the regular season

The only one of these that I think would surprise people would be Denver at 3 and Clips at 4 here. My response is simple:load management and depth. 

Denver has the most depth in the NBA. Malik Beasley is occasionally getting DNP-CD’s when he’d be starting on at least a third of the teams in the league right now. As the year goes on and injuries continue to accumulate they’ll be in a better position than anyone to absorb the impact than any other team. 

Best Teams Come Playoff Time

1. Clippers
2. Bucks
3. Lakers
4. 76ers
5. Warriors

The Clippers at full strength get an ever so slight edge over the Bucks for best team at full strength in the association. While I’m not sure they’ll finish with even a top 2 seed out west, it ought to be worth the cost as their two superstars should be fully charged for when the games matter the most. I have no idea still who’d I pick between the two if they met in the finals and Milwaukee had home-court advantage. 

The 76er’s are the only team that flirts with the Clippers for biggest boost come playoff time. Size matters even more in the postseason and nobody has more than Philly. Additionally, and with the caveat that it’s a small sample size, their offense has actually performed better versus top 10 defenses this year than the bottom 20 ones.

The Warriors might be a surprise to some on here, but this purely a hypothetical if their team were to get healthy come playoff tike. Is there a 5 man unit you do have more faith in than Curry-Russell-Klay-Green-Looney? We won’t see it this year and even if we did they’d still being be at least one wing short, but that core would be extremely difficult to take down.

Preseason Over/Under Checkin

Plays I was on the fence on, but would’ve made

Minnesota over 35.5- Its still too early to call this one. At 10-18 I’d say the under seems ever so slightly more likely, but it’s in my 40-60 percentile range. 

OKC over 32.5- I thought this would be a team that hovered around .500 until they started trading people and that’s exactly how it’s played out. It’ll take a pretty big unforeseen trade or major injury bout for them not to hit 33. 

Utah under 53.5- While most are surprised by how poorly the Jazz have been playing this year their performance is more or less what I was expecting. Sure Conley will probably start playing better when he gets back healthy, but I don’t see this team winning 50 games. This one definitely isn’t in the bag yet, but obviously I’m feeling good about it. 

Chicago over 32.5- I regret not moving the Bulls down more to poor coaching. Give this team an average coach and Otto Porter and they’re on their way to the playoffs. Still as dispiriting as they’ve been averaging together 538’s RAPTOR and DARKO has them at a little over 30 projected wins, so they could still do it. This month will be huge.

Pelicans over 35.5- This looked like a slam dunk no 2 weeks ago, but with Derrick Favors back and Zion around the corner there is still some hope here. Their defense is waaaaayyyy better with Favors anchoring the middle compared to 19 year old Jaxson Hayes and historically bad defensive center Jahlil Okafor. If Zion plays like he did in the preseason watch out! RAPTOR even has them at 37 wins! I still think they’re more of a low 30 wins team, but I at least have my eyes on them again. 

Lakers under 51.5- I’ll be taking the loss here in all likelihood even though this current 4 game losing skid offers a hint of promise. I forgot the old rule against don’t bet against a motivated Lebron. 

Hornets over 23.5- It hasn’t been sexy but Charlotte is over half of the way there through a third of the season. Even if Graham cools off and they play at a 20 win pace the rest of the year they’ve built up enough of a cushion to clear. I’m not writing it in stone yet, but I’m feeling pretty good. 

In total it looks like I’ll miss on the Lakers, but it’s looking real good on the Thunder. It’s too early to call Charlotte or Utah, but I’m definitely on the right side. I don’t feel great about any one of the 3 between the Bulls, Wolves and Pelicans, but I think they’re all close enough to where the law of averages should allow one to clear their over. The most likely outcome looks for me to go about 4-3. That’s about perfect as this group as a whole is were picks around 55-60 percentile and 4-3 would put me at 56-57%. 

Must Plays/Close to Locks

Dallas over 40.5-I’m going to go ahead and call this a good bet. Can I give some of these extra wins to the Bulls though?

Pistons under 37.5- These guys needed a lot of injury luck to hit .500 last year and they aren’t finding it again this year. Still there is enough of a chance that Blake Griffin gets his season turned around here that they squeak by to 38 or so, but I’m feeling like I’ve got about a 5 game cushion at this point. 

76er’s under 54.5-This is shaping up to be the closest of all my bets. The projection systems I use as well as their current pace all have them between 53 and 57 wins. They also could start to gel and play better or Embiid could get hurt and start to sink them. There’s still a lot of variation and I’ll probably be sweating this one until the md of the season. 

Phoenix over 29.5- I said before the season started I thought it was more likely that their win total would start with a 4 than a 2. Despite being on pace for just over 30 that still might hold true as their point differential is that of a team that ought to be just under .500. This far from a guarantee, but I’m feeling good. 

Lock of the Season

Pacers under 47.5-Gulp! Let’s just say I wish I had this one back. For a team I had below .500 I’ve clearly underrated their coaching and talent. With that being said, they’ve played the easiest schedule in the NBA, Brogdon is falling back down to earth and I’m not sure how good we can expect Oladipo to be coming out of the gates. So even though they’re 21-10 RAPTOR still has them as a 46 win team. I think that’s probably low, but shows I still have a decent chance at pulling this one off. 

In total when looking at my 5 most confident picks, I’d classify 1 as an easy win, 2 likely wins and 2 coin flips(or maybe little worse that a coin flip with Indiana). Considering I had the first tier at about 60-65%, and Indiana at around 75% that feels about where I should be at. I could easily win the two coin flips and go 5-0 and look smart, or I could those and then watch Devin Booker get hurt and wind up going 2-3. 3-2 is probably the most likely, but 4-1 is right on its heels. 

Here’s a brief dive through some thoughts on the NBA these past few weeks:

***Ive seen a couple of people’s opinions who I normally really respect lower on Milwaukee than I would’ve thought. Everything from how much it hurts to lose Brogdon, to how reliant they are on 3 point shooting, to not having a typical 1-2-3 hierarchy gets used as an excuse as to why they aren’t the best team in the league. 

To all of those I pretty much say “who cares?”  The Bucks were the best regular season team last year, and we’re cruising through the playoffs until a Fred Van Vleet 14-17 from downtown supernova attack fueled the eventual champions into taking them down. They’re pretty easily the best team in basketball this season, and while the East has had a few nice surprises at the top of the conference, they still get to play in the weaker part of the league. They were single most likely team to win the finals before the year and they remain there now. 

However, there is one point that could prove true that would have me (and kind of has me as I search for a home away from the Bulls) worried as a Bucks fan:  Is Eric Bledsoe merely a regular season 82 game player who can’t fill the role he needs to come playoff time?

Last year he wilted from semi all star to getting benched for George Hill in merely a month. The lack of 3 point shooting will always make him somewhat of a gunky fit next to Giannis, but if he can’t occasionally take his guy to get to the rim and get buckets as well, then he’s less valuable than your average 3-and-D type of guy. 

That ultimately could prove huge, because as great as Milwaukee’s depth has proven to be, without Brogdon, Bledsoe is the only gap between Giannis/Middleton and a bunch of guys who are merely role players. 

When it comes down to the playoffs the stars are almost always what matters most. Whoever’s best player plays better wins most of the time. However, not even prime MJ nor Lebron we’re going and getting rings by themselves. The one middle tier guy singlehandedly most likely to effect who winds up winning it all is Bledsoe. 

A couple other quick thoughts on Milwaukee:

1. I’ve caught the Bucks playing with Giannis at the five a couple times this year, and it’s potential should be horrifying to the rest of the league. The ability to overwhelm defenses with plus shooting while having Giannis cover everything up on the other end might make those particular Milwaukee lineups the best in the league.  Again though, Bledsoe’s ability to space the floor in this look will be paramount. 

2. They seem to substitute a lot. And they do it in a rapid fire sort of way with just one guy checking in at a time too. I’d be curious to see if there is any certain science to it, if it’s just a unique Bud thing. 

***I’ve called for the end of San Antonio’s playoff reign prematurely last year, and was scared to do so again this year despite a lot of numbers calling for it. Greg Popovich had earned that Bill Belicheck level of respect where you simply assume he’s a step ahead of everyone else at all points and adjust accordingly. 

Even with that adjustment, it seems that whatever secret he knows about great offenses is starting to get bludgeoned by the shift into 3’s and dunks in the NBA. 

I’m not exactly a cookie cutter Moreyball guy. A little differentiation can be good from time to time, and that the analytics community by and large underestimates guys like DeRozan and Aldridge as a result. Still, the Spurs shot charts look at least a decade old and they might be at a point where they’re just hitting their head against the wall ignoring the math. 

I’m not writing them all the way off yet. This is Pop, and .500 might actually might be good enough to get you into the playoffs out west for once, but right now the smart money says this is no playoff team in 2020. 

***I still don’t get why the Conventional Wisdom was so high on the Utah Jazz and the Mike Conley trade this offseason. If this team is going to get past the second round of the playoffs this year it was always going to be a result of Donovan Mitchell taking a larger than expected step forward rather than the modest projected bump from Rubio to Conley. Mitchell has shown flashes of doing that, but this still looks like a team that’s at a minimum a half rung below at least the LA teams out west. 

As for the team’s other star this might be Rudy Gobert’s best defensive performance yet. Royce O’Neal is solid, but the other 3 starters have no business being on a top 3 defensive team. Gobert isn’t finding the same success with Conley that he had with Rubio, but the fact that you can pretty much guarantee yourself a top 5 defensive team with him regardless of who he shares the floor with shows the guy is legitimately the best defensive player in the league and without a doubt a deserving all star. 

One thing to keep an eye on is the rebounding. The other starters all sport below average rebounding rates relative to their positions putting pressure on Rudy to gobble boards at a massive pace just to stay even with the other team. I could see Utah eventually succumbing to offensive rebounding woes as the season wears on. 

Final thought on Utah:  Matt Harpring has been the best analysis guy I’ve found on League Pass. I hope all my people in Salt Lake City are enjoying his talent. 

Some quicker thoughts

*** The Clippers are a fascinating case study on defense. For the longest time it’s been thought that defense starts with an anchor in the mold of a Ben Wallace or Rudy Gobert protecting the paint, with everything else falling in line behind that. 

The Clips, however, project as a great defensive team despite minimal rim protection. Obviously, one season will be a small sample, but I’m excited to see the defensive ratings of lineup that feature Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Patrick Beverly turn out. It’ll be interesting to see just how far a defense built almost exclusively on the strength of its perimeter can go.  Not only will it be interesting as a means to further our learning of the game, but it will also be one of the biggest questions in deciding who comes out of the west. 

***Depending on how you categorize what position everyone plays, Alex Caruso might be the best guard on the Lakers. Obviously, he’s not better than Lebron or Danny Green if you consider them guards (to me Lebron is a PG where Green has been more SF this year), but Caruso is a better overall player than Rondo, Bradley and KCP. 

Imagine two years ago hearing that Caruso was going to be the best guard on the team in 24 months. I might have actually felt bad for Lakers fans for once. Instead here they are sitting at 19-3. The NBA is weird sometimes. 

***It isn’t a very populous place, but I’m moving to Shai Gilgeous Alexander over Trae Young island. 

Trae Young is already an all star offensively, and ought to remain their for the next decade. Still, the defense is atrocious. Literally the worst in the league. He’s a guy that projects to compete for scoring titles while leading his team to win totals that start with a 3 for the foreseeable future. He’s a weak alpha, without the skillset to slide to a more complimentary role. 

SGA is the opposite. His greatest strength maybe the lack of a weakness going forward. He’s a plus shooter, but not an earth scorcher. He can capably be a lead guard, but is more of a plus as a secondary pick and roll guy. He’s not hyper athletic, but is super smooth getting to the hole. He’s got the size to defend the 1 through 3. 

In a couple years he’ll be able to compliment a bigger star offensively, while taking charge of bench units when said star is resting, all the while giving nothing back defensively.  I don’t know if that’s a recipe for a lot of all star games, but that’s pretty much exactly what a a 3rd or 4th best player on a championship team looks like. 

***How do you describe Karl Anthony Towns? I’ve never seen anyone remotely similar to him. Not only is he a 7 footer taking and making 3s at a rate like a mutant Ray Allen, but it’s the way he does it. With that skillset you’d think he’d be one of the most entertaining players to watch, but between his shooting motion, the lumbering way in which he runs, and general slouched over posture it always takes my brain a quarter to appreciate the brilliance of what I’m witnessing. 

***Ive officially watched enough James Harden this year that I’m all for the 1 free throw rule. Basketball is at its best when the game is in motion. The less time wasted on free throws the better. Not calling every 50/50 travel on a drive off a close, and letting a little more hand checking off the ball would be welcome changes as well. 

***Detroit might be in the worst spot in the league as far not having that many good players, not that many young players, and nobody who is both. Even the Knicks have     a few interesting young pieces, lots of projected cap room, an easy upgrade in their back pocket when they make their next coaching change, and a market big time players want to go to. Detroit has………hope Blake Griffin, Derrick Rose, and Andre Drummond can stay healthy to chase .500 and earn he right to get torn to pieces by Milwaukee this April?

There is a little light in this sea of darkness. Save me a spot on the Christian Wood bandwagon. All this guy has done is be the best player in the G League over the course of the past few years and produce when given an opportunity in the League. He’s got a good enough stroke, and enough bounce to compliment both of Detroit’s stalwart bigs when he shares the floor with him. Here’s to hoping he finally found the right home. Both he and the Pistons could use a little luck. 

>>>I’m going to miss Kyle Lowry- One of the most under-appreciated traits in the NBA is the ability to find out what your teams needs of you and slide into that role. Lowry is a long time favorite of mine as there are few players of his caliber that have the ability to change roles seamlessly depending on what his team needs of him. Throughout his career he has excelled at letting DeRozan and Leonard shine when sharing the floor with them, and sliding over to the alpha role when he was riding solo. 

This year he looked like he was well on his way to another all star campaign, in what I hope eventually becomes a Hall of Fame career after another hot start. Here’s to hoping he can put this thumb issue behind him as the Raptors are still a really fun team that will make the playoffs in the East a little more interesting with him behind the wheel. 

***I also want to acknowledge Nick Nurse here.  I haven’t given him enough for how good of a coach he has been the the last two years. For a team that came into the year with little projected depth and then suffered some injuries he has this team playimg at a high level. He deserves credit for the teams defensive effort and intelligent approach on offense. 

>>>So much for my theory about Harden not chasing the MVP as hard- I can’t stand his playing style, but you have to give credit where it’s due.  James Harden is in a shooting slump yet is dropping 38 a game. How is that possible? I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s dropping 40 a game by the end of the year. 

What gets me even more excited about the Rockets though is the success they’re having when going small. I was and still am worried about how it would work out defensively, but by switching everything they are able to at least somewhat overcome their height disadvantage. 

And offensively, it’s Peak Warriors Hampton 5 good. The Westbrook-Harden pick and roll makes every other coach in the league gulp. When they’ve busted it out, it seems like they wind up with either a layup or a good look from 3 for an at least decent 3 point shooter every time down the floor. 

If Harden’s historic start continues to combine with good enough team defense, then the Rockets will deserve to slide up a tier from fringe Title contenders, to that Milwaukee/Clippers/maybe Lakers level of true level 1 contenders. 

>>>DeAndre Jordan is terrible- DJ is a sad example of what happens when a guy who’s game is completely dependent on size and athleticism loses said athleticism. He never really had a true skill set outside of lob man/rim protector, but now he’s not even that. I’m not sure he even can be called a league average backup center at this point. 

I said it the day they signed them all in Free Agency that by bringing DeAndre in with Irving and Durant they were giving back a significant chunk of whatever surplus value they had in the other 2 contracts. Having him sink all the value is what may end happening. 

Getting Durant back next year obviously will help, but asking a 32 year old coming of an Achilles tear to bring a .500 team to a championship level is a pretty ridiculous ask. Even expecting 50 wins might be a little bit of a reach. 

Brooklyn should be at least a solid team for a while. Still, after being seen as big winners this offseason, the path to a championship doesn’t seem really clear.

>>> The Lakers have been off to a better start than I expected and there really is just 2 words I have for that: Wow. Lebron!

Seriously, what else is there left to say about that man? He has the wisdom of the balding gray bearded man he is, with the athleticism no other individual in the world possesses. Just when you think he cannot possible surpass what he’s accomplished, here he is in year SEVENTEEN leading the league in assists with a career low in turnovers. Incredible!  

What might be impressing me the most is the defensive intensity is there. The Lakers have been shockingly the best defensive team in basketball, and Lebron is playing as big of role in that as anyone. I thought he was destined to spend the rest of his career hiding on the opposing teams weakest offensive threat, not really doing transition defense, and only ratcheting up his defense when the game was on the line. But no, Lebron is as engaged on that end as I’ve seen since his Miami days 6 years ago. 

Still, when it comes to the Lakers surprisingly hot start and guys playing defense like it’s 6 years ago, there’s no bigger story than Dwight Howard. In a wild turn of events Boogie Cousins’ injury shaped the teams fortunes in a positive way by giving them the opportunity to bring in and play Howard. Really those 2 playing defense at a high level is the entire difference between the merely good team I projected them to be and the elite team they are now.  

2 other quick notes on LA:

*As a Laker hater, yes! Please keep on posting up Anthony Davis as a 4. Good idea by getting the ball out of Lebron’s hands. And you definitely shouldn’t use Davis more as the most lethal lob man in the game catching passes from arguably the best passer in the history of the sport. Keep up that offensive philosophy Frank Vogel. 

*Danny Green is one of the most underrated players in the sport. Every team he’s on sees their defensive performance immediately spike when he joins. He’s a solid floor spacer as well. How guys like Klay Thompson and Otto Porter get max contracts while he gets labeled as just a role player is crazy to me. He’s at most a half tier below those guys. 

>>>I’m not high on Atlanta- The Hawks are seen as one of the bright and upcoming teams in the league, but I’m not sure I buy it. 

It starts with Trae Young and his defense. Evaluating defense is difficult. Normally, only in the most extreme cases you can tell immediately who’s really good and bad. For the rest it takes so much time that I more or less rely on the numbers.  A person can tell after 5 minutes that Draymond Green is really good defensively and that Isaiah Thomas is not. Trae Young might be the best current example in basketball of the easy to see right away bad defender. He gets stuck on screens, is slow to rotate, fails to get his hand up and gets pushed around with ease. He made Tomas Satoransky look like Kawhi Leonard for a night last week. 

The kid is already special offensively, but with defense so bad I’m not sure he’s even a league average starter. As time goes on I’m sure he’ll improve, but he’s the only player I’ve seen this year who I’ve thought, “Man.  He’s so bad that Zach Lavine is closer to being a league average defender than being as bad as him.”  Starting in such a hole makes projecting him as merely bad in the future as unlikely. 

What really has me doubting their future though is the most recent draft. I wasn’t high on either DeAndre Hunter nor Cam Reddish on draft night, and they’ve failed to meet the low bars I had set for them. I don’t know if I’d bet on either of them ever tuning into even a true starter, that’s crippling for 2 lottery picks. 

Throw in the 25 game suspension for John Collins and things look even more bleak. Having the Leagues worse uniforms seems appropriate. At least Jabari Parker looks solid for once. Maybe finally playing the right position helped. 

Some quicker thoughts:

>>>I’ve seen Lebron, Giannis, Kawhi, and Jimmy Butler all 3 times this year. I remain unconvinced that JB doesn’t belong in the same breath as those first 3. At most he’s a half tier below them, but he’s an easy top 10 player in the league for me and anyone who has them outside of 15 shouldn’t be taken seriously. FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR has him as the second best player on a per minute basis in the league right now. Life’s good Butler Island.

>>>A year from now Ty Lue and Alvin Gentry will have each other’s jobs. The Pelicans have been one of the most disappointing teams in the league up to this point even when accounting for Zion’s injury. Gentry has never been able to get this squad to play defense at a level it’s talent says it should. David Griffin will hire Lue like he did in Cleveland, and hope for similar results, albeit on a longer timeframe. Gentry will be highly sought after as an assistant, and won’t be able to find a better opportunity that being Doc Rivers’ right hand man for what could be a championship team. 

>>> Will Dragan Bender get some minutes in Milwaukee? Robin Lopez isn’t a good fit with the way Milwaukee likes to play. Will Bender, who’s skill set screams Bud Ball, find himself with an opportunity to show that his disappointing time in Phoenix was more a result of him being in a poor system rather than him being a bust? I wouldn’t bet on it, but after watching Alex Len break out and hearing some of his comments as to why I’d like to see him try. 

>>> As for the Bulls:

*Theres a lot of talk about how the Bulls “can’t close” and there is some truth to that, but the trend is more teams start hitting 3’s against the Bulls in the second half. In the first of games the Bulls defense is allowing a paltry 30% of three point attempts to go in , and 40% to go in the second half. Expect the Bulls to have less games where they collapse not due to any tactical or change in effort, but rather having those numbers revert to the mean. 

*I can do without Chandler Hutchison. Sure, he’s athletic, tries hard on D, and is exciting when he pushes it up the floor after rebound, but he doesn’t really have the size to consistently play up to the 4 nor any kind of confidence in shooting it from behind the arc. Coming in as a college senior, he doesn’t have nearly as much projected development left as most second year players. There’s enough in this package to float around the league for a little bit, but with the 22nd pick in what was a pretty decent draft you’d hope for more than a Ronnie Brewer/David Nwaba type of guy. 

*I am excited about Lauri at the five, but I don’t know about him there with lineups that have both Hutch and Dunn in them. If you’re going to put Lauri at the five the thought is to get as much shooting on the floor as possible, not to comp for two perimeter guys who aren’t threats from deep. When Porter gets back I want to see a little bit of the Porter-Young-Lauri front court. 

*Speaking of Porter, the Bulls are rediculously dependent on him. Those 3 guard lineups haven’t worked out well, and Hutch is overused when starting. On a related note, what does Denzel Valentine have to do to get some minutes?

*It happened over a week ago, but I’m still upset about how loud the UC got when the Lakers made that 16-0 run to start the 4th quarter against Chicago. The Bulls are a global brand that have the largest unshared market in the entire NBA. To be at a point where some prissy Southern California team can come to the Windy City on a chilly November night and drowned out the home team is a new pathetic low for the clown show that is Boylen, GarPax and most of all Reinsdorf. 

While teams that lack the prestige of the Bulls, like the Heat and Clippers, refuse to rebuild while landing stars, we get fed lies about how we have to go through this process. The Bulls have a bottom tier payroll, and even when given the opportunity to acquire future draft capital, Jerry, despite being wealthier than most people can ever imagine, chooses instead to pocket even more cash he’ll never use. 

Watching that lead collapse was the epitome of the Reinsdorf era. Get dealt a huge head start, only to watch carelessness, cheapness and promotion of ass kissers fumble away the gift others had provided. 

Before the game Anthony Davis talked about how he would love to come home to play in Chicago someday. With even average management that dream might come true for all parties involved. Instead the most we can reasonably hope for is 34 or so year old AD signing with his hometown as his career winds down. 

I’ve deservedly ripped into GarPax plenty, but the truth is that the real cancer lies in the seat above them. Jerry Reinsdorf is the shit stain of Chicago sports and an embarrassment to the entire city. Sell the team Jerry. Your stench is decaying one of the 10 most prestigious clubs in North American sports in a city’s that deserves far better.

Then sell the Sox too. 

I wrote a couple pages on a realistic route Id like to see the Sox to pursue this offseason as part of the Offseason Plan Project over at Sox Machine. Here is is :

PREAMBLE

Going into the offseason there seem to be two main approaches as to how the Sox should go about things this winter. 

1. Be aggressive and acquire high level talent in the hopes of potentially being this years 2015 Cubs that improved by 24 wins by adding a franchise altering free agent like Gerrit Cole to go with a star rookie like Luis Robert turbocharging the team a la Jon Lester and Kris Bryant. 
2. Find some patchwork players that will semi fill holes in a more incremental plan where flirting with .500 next year can be seen as a success. 

Of these two options #1 seems incredibly unlikely, and #2 leaves us in pretty much the exact same position as after the 2016 season.  Hooray! We won 79 games or whatever, but with Moncada, Giolito, and Anderson only having 3, 3 and 4 years remaining of control left, that’ll be even less than the 3, 4 and 5 Sale, Quintana and Eaton had when the rebuild began. 

The Sox only put up 69 Pythagorean wins. They could improve on that by 10 wins next year and another 10 the year following and still not make the playoffs. Between the Yankees, Astros, Rays, A’s, Twins, Indians and Angels (provided they spend like expected) there are 7 teams that are looking between potentially historic to really good the next few years. I’d bet on at least 5 of those teams alone getting to 90 wins both years without even accounting for a potential random breakout from the Rangers or Blue Jays. The odds of sneaking in with an 88 win team like they did in 2008 is really low with parity being the scarcest it’s been in decades throughout the AL. Barring extensions, the Moncada-Giolito “championship window” could be closed before that core even makes the playoffs. 

Add it all up and I went in to this exercise fully expecting that I was going to pursue a different route. 

3. Keep the rebuild going for a little bit longer. Cash in on Moncada and Giolito while their value is at their highest for players who’s timelines more or less align with Eloy and Robert’s. 

I was ready to try and justify to everyone why they should be excited about my Moncada for Wander Franco and Giolito for Gavin Lux deals. 

However, the more I got into it I found that there was just enough value and upside in a couple different free agents and trades, that combined with some extensions could put the team within one standard deviation of “luck” from the postseason, extend the window by a year or 2, cost no top 10 prospects from the farm system, and have a final budget in the neighborhood to be approved by cheap, old Jerry. 

My plan turned out boring and similar to a lot of others. Sorry ahead of time for trying to be sold on Yasmani Grandal yet again. 

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

Write “tender” or “non-tender” after each player and their projected 2020 salaries. Feel free to offer explanation afterward if necessary.

• Alex Colomé, $10.3M Tender

• Yolmer Sánchez, $6.2M Non-Tender, but re-sign later

• James McCann, $4.9M Tender

• Carlos Rodon, $4.5M Tender

• Leury García, $4M Tender

• Evan Marshall, $1.3M Tender

• Josh Osich, $1M non 

• Ryan Goins, $900K non-tender

CLUB OPTIONS

Write “pick up” or “decline” after the option.

• Welington Castillo: $8 million/$

How come there is no option to trade with international money so that Reinsdorf can have even more money that he’ll never use?

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

Try to retain, or let go?

• Jose Abreu (made $16M in 2019) 

Sign to 1 year 17 million dollar contract with club option for same price on the second year with 2 million dollar buyout (I wouldn’t have bid against myself for him, but I guess that’s my punishment for not turning my homework in on time)

• Iván Nova (made $9,166,167 in 2019) Leto go

• Jon Jay (made $4M in 2019) Let go, but only if he’s not really good friends or relatives with Mookie Betts

• Hector Santiago (made $2M in 2019 on split contract) Let go, but probably see you in June. 

FREE AGENTS

No. 1 and 2:  Sign Yasmani Grandal and Zack Wheeler to 4 year $74 million deals with $15 mil the first year and $19mil each of the last 3 years. 

Grandal is as a good as catcher as anyone in the sport. As others have stated he not only helps the offense, but all the young pitchers by grabbing strikes as well. Getting him is imperative as it’s nearly impossible to get a guy projected to put up all star level performance in this price range. 

Wheeler is more risky when you factor in his injury history and limited track record. Still when it comes to the Sox history in Free Agency I would much rather roll the dice on a guy with injury questions than production questions. There are also people in the game that think with better coaching he could be even better. Don Cooper may no longer be the best pitching coach in the game, but it’s possible he could squeeze more out of him. In all, even if he misses a quarter of his starts and regresses to a 4 war pitcher when he’s on the bump he’d still be well worth this contract. 

No 3: Sign Travis Wood to a 1 year/ $6 million deal

Again I’d rather take a chance on a guy with upside rather than watch a higher floor/lower risk guy who somehow the Sox manage to watch quicksand through the floor. 

No 4: Sign Yolmer Sanchez to a 1 year/$4 million deal

I think he’s worth $6 million easy, but the market seems to disagree. Still he won a gold glove at an up the middle position this year and was a league average bat the year before. If he could combine the two he’d be a well above average, almost all star. If not, he’s still fin depth and provides quality insurance against an injury to Moncada or rough start for Madrigal. 

No 5: Sign Mitch Moreland to a 1 year $4 million deal, with a club option for the second year at $6 million with a 500k buyout. 

Hey at least if the Sox miss here like they did with all their other left handed 1B/DH partners the last decade the cost won’t be so painful. 

No 6: Sign Dillon Betences to a 1 year $10 million deal

If he’s healthy, he ought to be a steal at this price. I needed to add at least one arm to the bullpen and wanted to continue my focus on taking chances with guys that have had injury histories rather than production problems in the past. 

No 7: Sign Drew Pomeranz to a 2 year $14 million deal. The first year is for $6 million and year 2 is for $8 million. 

Last year he was bad as a starter and dominant as a reliever. He’d be coming out of the pen in this scenario. He wouldn’t be the first guy who saw a sudden jump stick by changing roles and finding out if that’s the case with him works at this number. 

TRADES

Just one: Package Alec Hansen, Zach Burdi, Bryce Bush and Tyler Johnson along with Kelvin Herrera to the Dodgers for Joc Pederson

Pederson is projected to make $8.5 million in his final year before free agency. My best guess says that puts him around $10 million in surplus value as a 3 WAR corner outfielder who needs a platoon. 

They can decide if they want to try and tweak Herrera or just outright release. Regardless I tried to come up with $15-20 dollars in prospect value. I focused on guys who I thought the Dodgers would view as not having the right…….nurturing environment and could reach their potential within their renowned player development system. Burdi and Hansen have been top prospects in the past and Bush has the traits, as a younger northern state high school product, that analytic front offices tend to. I’d argue each prospect has roughly $5 million in value making the trade worth while. It helps them with both their outfield and 40 man roster crunch. 

For the Sox it fills their gaping hole in right field, without giving up a top 10 prospect in the system, and might even save a little cash. 

EXTENSIONS 

I cheated by throwing in this category, but adding years years of control to the players with the brightest futures may be the most important thing the White Sox can do this offseason. 

****Im no expert on projecting arbitration numbers a couple years into the future. Let me know if you think I’ve erred too high or low for Gio or Moncada***

No 1: Sign Luis Robert to the Eloy Jimenez deal from last off season. 

Eloy didn’t seem to really want an extension too badly, and with already one big payday Robert doesn’t seem to be a great candidate either. Still the Jimenez contract was viewed as not particularly team friendly compared to others that have been signed. Get Robert signed up and on the field opening day. 

 No 2: Sign Yoan Moncada to a 4 year $47 million deal with a club option for the 2024 season at $24 million with a $2 million buyout. The structure would be $2 million this year, $11 million for 2021, $15 million for 2022, and $19 million for 2023. 

Moncada as well may not be interested in an extension for the same reason as Robert above. Still with this deal he only gives up one year of free agency and sees a pay raise this year. I ballparked what he would potentially make in arbitration as a little north of $50 million, and this comes in just south. Who knows, but maybe a little haircut is worth the guarantee. 

No 3: Sign Lucas Giolito to a 5 year $57 million dollar deal  with a club option for the 2025 season at $24 million with a $2 million buyout. The structure would be $2 million this year, $9 million for 2021, $11 million for 2022, $15 million 2023, and $21 million for 2024. 

Giolito does seem like a great bet to be interested in an extension based off his difficulty finding success and health thus far in his career. At the same time he also strikes me as a well thought out guy who wouldn’t take kindly to trying to be taken advantage of. 

This contract seems like a fair middle ground. Yes it covers 2 years of free agency instead of 1, but only one is an option year. With TJ on the resume getting an extra year of guaranteed cash might be a positive for Giolito. 

SUMMARY

Vs RHP

3B Moncada

LF Jimenez

DH Abreu

RF Pederson

SS Anderson

C Grandal

CF Robert

1B Moreland

2B Madrigal

Vs LHP

3B Moncada

SS Anderson

1B Abreu

DH Grandal

LF Jimenez 

RF Robert

2B Madrigal

C McCann

CF Engel 

Other bench

Leury

Yolmer

Not a bad looking lineup, no? That’s 2 All Stars, and a bunch of guys who should hover around league average for their positions with some possible youthful breakouts sprinkled in. The order of could be debated, but I want to utilize the two platoons put in there. 

This would be the deepest squad in over a decade. Yolmer starts at second the first 2 weeks of the season until it’s Madrigal time. If Nick struggles at all off the bat Yolmer can spell him once or twice a week against tough right handed pitching. Engel is a great fit with Pederson. He replaces Eloy defensively late in games as well. Leury will see the field plenty. It’s impossible to think not one of Robert and Eloy will make it through the entire year unscathed from injury. McCann can catch Gio once in a while too if we’re going through a stretch versus a lot of righties. 

SP

Giolito

Wheeler

Cease

Wood/Rodon 

López/Kopech 

RP

Betences

Colomé

Bummer

Pomeranz

Fry

Marshall

Fuller

Cordero

In a tale like the lineup, the hope would be the top 2 combine at an all star level while the depth would take care of the rest. I don’t know if there is 1 guy I really love in the slots 3-5, but between all of them I think you could string together a league average back of the rotation. 

The backend of the bullpen has 4 guys I’d happily count on even though it might be lacking one truly dominant guy. Middle relief could be an issue, but there are still enough semi interesting guys in the system floating around I don’t see it being that big of a deal.  We might even have a starter or 2 to spare come the middle of the season if it does turn into a big problem. 

Total payroll 

I come in a hair over budget at $123 million. If push comes to shove I just let Colomé go and see what $7 million gets for an arm out of the pen these days. Still I don’t see the Sox letting him go so quickly so I think going over a little is just and more likely. 

My best guess is that this team would project for roughly 85 wins with a fair amount of variance when looking at the rotation and expected production from younger guys. Neither being a surprise playoff team or falling just short of the playoffs would be particularly surprising to me. 

What would have me the most excited though is how is team would project into the future. Everyone projected to be an above average starter going forward, with the exception of Pederson, is under control for at least four years. The hope would be that we still have enough in the farm with Rutherford, Adolfo, Gonzalez, Walker, Basabe, Vaughn, Sheets, Collins, Zavala and Mendick to replace Pederson, Moreland, Yolmer, McCann and maybe even Abreu next year or package them to fill holes in other areas. 

Let’s bring competitive baseball back to the southside of Chicago next year and enjoy it for at the very least the first half of the new decade. 

This year I went ahead and bought NBA League Pass. My goal is to get in one NBA game a day if the weather, technology and electricity Gods permit here in rural Colombia. Every week or 2 I’ll try to post some analysis on the Bulls and some other teams and trends I’ve found interesting. Starting today with:

The Memphis Grizzlies: 

Jaren Jackson Jr. is already a monster. That kid is destined to be an absolute force in the league. On offense he makes threes at a high clip, handles the rock better than a lot of small forwards, and makes teams pay if they switch guards on to him in the post. Defensively he swats shots at an elite level and is one of the switchiest bigs in the league already. Making it all the more incredible is that he’s still a teenager. He’s on his to becoming this generations version of Chris Bosh. 

I thought Brandon Clarke was a steal at #21 in the draft this year and so far so good on that call. He’s shooting 57% from the field and blocking 2.5 shots per 36 minutes. He might not have the size you want for a big, but makes up for it with truly special quick twitch athleticism. If that jump shot keeps on coming along the Grizz will have a championship level frontcourt in a couple years. 

It’ll be interesting to see how Ja Morant turns out. He was my easy number 2 in the draft this year, and he’d still be there if we redid the draft today. That being said, I think I should’ve lent more credence to the scouts who were wondering how he’d adjust to not having the ball in his hands all the time and the massive difference in athleticism and strength he’d be facing in a night in night out basis. Eventually he ought to become a D’Aron Fox level point guard, but it might take a little more time than expected. 

Miami Heat:

These guys play an unorthodox style that almost feels like we’re watching a late career Tom Glavine. Not a tun of raw talent, but an extremely high level of craftiness and feel for the game that rarely ever beat themselves. And are all of those lefties on purpose? Regardless Spo is doing a great job of setting up plays where he gets those guys running down hill into 5-8 foot floater range that they all seem to hit at a clip higher than you’d expect. 

Miami remains my favorite potential blockbuster trade aggressor in the league right now. They have the best player in the Eastern Conference outside the top 2 teams, great coaching, some interesting young pieces, and the kind of medium sized contracts that make the math of huge trades easier, to go along with a front office and ownership that’s always in win right now mode. 

Who says no to a Dion Waiters, James Johnson and Goran Dragic and a second round draft pick for Chris Paul and Danilo Gallinari deal? The Heat would immediately have the best defensive backcourt in the league with Paul and Butler. Combine that with Justice Winslow, Bam Abedayo and Spo and you’ve got all the ingredients you’d need for a top 5 defense. 

Offensively Butler and Paul are capable of orchestrating top 10 offenses by themselves and could compliment each other pretty well. They’d be surrounded by a lot of plus shooters in Olynyk, Gallinari, Meyers Leonard, and Tyler Herro, as well as a hand full of guys best suited as secondary playmakers like Kendrick Nunn (!), Herro and Winslow. 

There’s a lot of injury risk and money invested in two guys over 30, but with the Bucks off to a slow start, and Philly not having proved itself in the playoffs, the East might be open and Miami could strike. 

For OKC I think this deal makes sense as well as they get off Paul’s contract without having to attach an asset. Obviously, Waiters and Johnson are undesirable but their contracts expire a year earlier and also could be more easily used to grease further deals. This trade will also help them tank for this year which seems like an implicit goal based off of some of Sam Presti’s comments the past few months. 

I could see Miami preferring to keep its cap space for next offseason, or OKC not wanting to help Miami win as they have 2 of their future first round draft picks, but I’d argue both teams should sign off on this deal. 

Bringing weapons off the bench

I found it really interesting that Spo is bringing Dragic and Olynyk off the bench. It reminds me of how Doc Rivers always has a Lou Williams or Jamal Crawford ready to go when he’s coaching. Maybe the most infamous move of Greg Popovich‘ career was having Manu Ginobli be his 6th man. Currently, he brings Derrick White and Rudy Gay, two of his five current best players, off the bench. Maybe the biggest move Steve Kerr made in Golden State was convincing Andre Iguodala to come off the bench when he first got to town. 

Those might be the four most accomplished coaches in the league right now. It certainly could just be some noise, but there might be a secret boost these guys have figured out by constructing their rotations in this manner.  It’s something I want to look into more in the future. 

All these traveling calls are annoying

Why was this a point of emphasis? Literally, the only people who complain about traveling not getting called enough are the same losers who cry every time someone flips his bat after hitting a home run in baseball. Playing to that demographic does nothing to help the game grow with future generations. If the point was to help the defense some after the offensive explosion the last few years (and I’m not sure why they would feel compelled to do that) then they should get rid of the Illegal Defense rule all together. 

The Bulls are who I (we?) thought they were

I’ve seen a lot of fans in arms over how poor of a start this team has gotten off to, but why?  Coming into the season the Bulls should’ve been seen as something between the 7th and 12th worst team in the league. Fringe bottom 10 teams aren’t good enough to just go into other teams buildings and expect to win easily, even against the weakest of the weak. All the playoff hype was a product of playing in the junior conference, not the talent on hand. 

It starts with the defense. It has been atrocious, but if you thought it’d be average coming into the year then you had unrealistic expectations. That being said the Bulls haven’t been as bad as they’ve looked on that end. Marvin Williams, PJ Washington, Bobby Portis and Cedí Oscan are a group of average backup power forwards who have somehow combined to go 20-27 from downtown vs. the Bulls this year. Lauri Markannan is a better player than all of them and he’s started the season 10-40 from behind the line. The old saying is “it’s a make or miss league” and the bulls have been missing while the other teams have had some pretty mediocre players explode on them. If the Bulls had average “luck” against that lot of meh Power Forwards and Lauri was shooting like he normally does the Bulls would be at least .500 and probably even better right now. 

Other notes:

>>>Zach Lavine remains a huge liability defensively. Don’t let his insecure fanboy club tell you any different. There is at least one defensive possession every game where I can’t believe how bad his awareness and or effort is. That being said, I’m liking his improved shot selection thus far this season, just not to the point where the Zach Lavine All Star crowd is winning the debate over the Lavine is a 6th man crowd. 

>>>Kris Dunn is so fun in this role as a 7th man. The dude plays great defense. I want him to have an average 3 point shot so badly. 

>>>I thought it was really weird that Boylen had Porter playing the 4 to start second and fourth quarters next to the three guards to start the season. Porter was on a minutes restriction and is the only guy on the roster capable of giving good minutes at the 3. Additionally 2 of the 4 best players on the roster are best at the 4. In a vacuum it makes sense to give Otto sometime at the 4, but it was kind of head scratching with how this roster is constructed. 

>>>If Valentine really isn’t capable of earning a spot in the rotation, then the Bulls should have Satoransky play with some of those 3 guard units. He’s the only one of the 5 guards the Bulls use to have the size and defensive chops to guard other teams 3s. Get Archy in the game earlier where his skill set goes well with the Bulls other starters and have Sato start the second quarter. 

>>>Despite being nailed to the bench thus far I like Denzel’s attitude. He’s been showing good body language when Coby White has had stretches where he’s impressed. 

>>>I wish the Bulls would run a 5 and out with Lauri and Thaddeus Young more. Sure you might not have much rim protection, but you could switch everything. I think the Bulls’ best lineups this year will have these two up front. 

>>>My hottest take: Between Lavine being overrated, Lauri stagnating from his rookie season, Carter not being able to shoot and “anchoring” the worst rebounding team in the league, and Coby White not being able to even put up 4 assists/36 minutes, the best long term prospect on the Bulls is their 2020 1st round draft pick. 

Like my last couple posts this all comes from before the season began. I didn’t change anything based off of the first week or so of games. Enjoy and let me know what you think I got right/wrong! Sorry for typos.

1. Despite the fact they’re the two biggest favorites to come out of the west according to our friends in Vegas, only 1 LA team will make it out of the first round of the playoffs- This isn’t really a shot at either of these teams as much as respect for how strong the Conference is top down, as well as how much one key injury could quickly change either of their fortunes. Additional hot take, the best team in the state of California still plays ball in the Bay Area. 

2. Somebody other than Philly finishes as the 2 seed in the East- Reminder Philly got rid of their best player from last season. The defense might be the best in the league, but I’m not convinced I see a top 10 offense there. Somebody out East will get off to a hotter than expected start, see that their is an opportunity to crash the party at the top of the conference, make an aggressive win now move, and wind up slotting between Milwaukee and the sixers. My two favorite fake trades are: Chris Paul to Miami or Kevin Love to Boston. 

3. Speaking of fake trades: Minnesota finally unloads Andrew Wiggins- I don’t know where, but if I had to pick a team I’d go with the Knicks in a deal that involves a lot of overpaid power forwards on expiring deals. Maybe Bobby Portis and Taj Gibson can continue their tour of the NBA together? Those two for Wiggins, Jordan Bell and 2 second round picks sometime around January sounds about right. ***if this goes down watch out for Minnesota to a make move on D’Angelo Russell next offseason. They have interesting young pieces and wing depth the Warriors would covet in a potential deal. Culver or Okogie plus some rotational pieces might suffice.

 4 A Western Conference Team will miss the playoffs that would’ve been a top 5 team in the East- The West is so loaded that at least one 45 or so win team with Steph Curry, Lebron James, Damian Lillard, Zion Williamson, Karl Anthony Towns, or Luka Doncic on it won’t be playing playing in the postseason. 

        The argument to get rid of conferences and just reseed the top 16 teams seems to be brought up every year and most of the time I don’t really care. Some 42 WCF team sitting at home while an ECF team with 40 wins goes on seems pretty trivial, but this year could be lunacy. Those 6 names above might account for 15 of the most players in the league the next half decade. Letting half or so of them sit at home while Boring Indiana, or an in over is head led Zach Lavine Bulls team gets wiped out by the Bucks by 20 a game after they only could muster 39 or so wins is suboptimal at best. 

The NBA is freaking out about the situation with China, but between tanking and having its best players on the sideline for the most important part of the season so that worse teams can continue threatens the game at least as much. Adam Silver is the GOAT or commissioners of North American sports during my lifetime. If he’s as good as I think he is he’ll address this sooner rather than later. He needn’t look further than what’s happening with general interest and attendance in MLB if he needs a warning. 

5. Despite all the hype around the offseason in LA and Brooklyn, the teams that we’ll look at in 10 years and say they had the best offseason are New Orleans, Oklahoma City and Memphis- The sheer draft capital these teams acquired is absolutely incredible. OKC pulled in 11 (!!!!!) first round draft picks and pick swaps this offseason withoutn even accounting for SGA. New Orleans pulled the best prospect in the draft since Lebron, Lonzo Ball is my favorite pick for breakout year and I’m betting on those draft picks from LA becoming extremely valuable as long as Rob Pelinka is calling the shots in Lakerland. Memphis got the second best prospect in the draft, another guy I view as a starter long term in Brandon Clarke at 21 and did a better job than anyone in turning their present cap space into future draft capital. 

If you were trying to figure out the teams in the best shape for 2025 I don’t know if you could come up with a better 3 than these franchises. 

6. Looking into the future Nieckell Alexander Walker will be seen as a better player than at least one of the Darius Garland/Coby White guards drafted at least 10 picks ahead of them- I have all these guys in the same class of I know that they will be able to score a little bit, but will they become to create for others and/or play defense at a high enough level to be anything more than just a scorer than a bench long term? NWA’s size makes him the most intriguing of the bunch to me.

7. Mitchell Robinson will have a better career than DeAndre Ayton. Dznan Musa will have a better career than Marvin Bagley- Last year I predicted Robinson and Musa would go on to have better careers than Bagley. I felt so great about my Robinson pick I decided to try and take it to the next level this year. Musa did nothing, but he was one of the youngest players in the league on a deep team. I remain high on him. Bagley should be decent but I still don’t see enough defense or 3 point ability from him becoming any more than an empty calories Julius Randle kind of player. 

8. Steph Curry wins MVP- I know the team around him will be trash, but I’m still expecting a Russell Westbrook type of narrative/scoring explosion combination that will propel him to enough wins to earn the award.

9. Denver finishes with the most wins out west- the two most overlooked aspects of regular season success is continuity and depth. Denver might be number one in the league in both of these categories. They return 93% of their minutes played last year and add a guy who would be a solid starter for most teams in Jerami Grant and a fun wild card in Michael Porter Jr. The Nuggets should be able to capitalize on knowing each other, as a lot of these new teams go through some initial growing pains of figuring out how to play with each other. They were also hit by the injury bug last year and some regression to the mean their would help as well. There’s a lot of reasons to believe these guys will be better than last year when they won 54 games. Just a couple win improvement should be enough to get them the #1 seed. 

***I didn’t edit any of this cause I am afraid my computer has like 2 hours of life left in it. Apologies ahead of time for anything that came out sloppy***

With the beginning of the NBA season right around the corner I wanted to go on record and quickly share some of the best values on over/under for win totals I see throughout the League. All of the projected win totals I’m using from Bovada. For this piece all the teams are ranked in order of confidence I have in the potential play, but I have further broke them down into tiers for people who might be looking for more concrete betting advice.

Fringe Plays

15. LAC under 54

They easily could be the best team in basketball at full strength, but there are 2 reasons that will keep them from hitting 54. One is Paul George is out at least the first 10 games of the season. The second is Kawhi Leonard’s load management.

14. Houston under 53.5

It seems like Houston hits this number every year, but I’m skeptical they’ll keep it up. They are at their best when James Harden has the ball in his hand, so acquiring someone who has the ball in his hands more than any other player in the league could wind up hurting. Additionally, this is one of the oldest and thinnest rosters in the league. The roster outside of their big 2 almost feels like a house of cards. The final point against would be that this could be the year where Harden finally adjusts and decides to save himself more for the playoffs instead of chasing MVP’s .

13. Memphis over 26.5

I don’t think they’re great by any stretch of the imagination, but a front-court of Jaren Jackson Junior, Jonas Valancunius, Jae Crowder and Brandon Clarke, along with decent PG play from Ja Morant and Tyus Jones should provide enough mediocrity to get them to around 30 wins.

12. Denver over 53

They won 54 games last year, had one of the younger teams in the league, return 93% of their minutes played, and should be more fortunate with injuries this year than last. To top it all off they made a good move in picking up Jerami Grant, and get Michael Porter Junior this year. I dont like taking overs on teams in the mid to low 50’s but this could easily be a play.

Plays I Would Make

11. Minn over 35.5

Karl Anthony Towns plus improved coaching ought to get them to around 40 wins. If they could get an even average point guard somehow I could see a playoff team here.

10. OKC over 32

Their starting lineup is surprisingly decent and are another team I could see making a playoff run if they stayed healthy. Still they are all in for the future, so I don’t have as much confidence in them not trading away some of their best players, or trying to tank towards the rest of the season. Even then, if they are around .500 around the trade deadline and then decide to sell/tank that should be enough for them to cover this number with a fair amount of room to spare.

9. Utah under 53.5

A lot of people are loving what Utah did, but I see more of a rearranging of chairs rather than drastic improvement with this team. Yes Mike Conley is and upgrade over Ricky Rubio for sure, but when you factor in they surrendered a fair amount of depth with Korver and Crowder in that deal as well did they really move the needle all that much. Same thing with Bogdonavic. He will undoubtedly help juice the offense, but at what expense defensively. Derrick Favors was always kind of an awkward fit their next to Gobert, but he might be the better all around player of the two. When you factor in all the aggressive plays the other teams made around them, this is a team that’s more or less a coin flip to hit 50 wins.

8. Chicago over 32.5

The Bulls gave as a high of percentage of minutes to replacement level players as any team in the league last year. By replacing those minutes with Thad Young, Tomas Satoransky and Luke Kornet, to go along with a full season of Otto Porter Jr. and a mild projected breakout from Wendell Carter this should be a team that competes for a playoff spot in the weaker conference.

7. New Orleans over 37.5

This would be my second most confident play in the League if I knew that Zion were healthy. Even with his knee being the saddest question mark in the league right now this team might be able to crack 37.5 without him. Lonzo Ball might be my favorite breakout pick in the league right now, and they might be the deepest team in the league. This is particularly important as overall depth is often the most overlooked detail when analyzing teams projections. Here’s to hoping Zion can stay healthy and that he leads them to 45 wins and the playoffs.

6. LAL under 51.5

On talent they ought to get there, but if there were a team I have faith in barfing all over itself and messing things up this is the one. Nothing neutralizes the greatness of Lebron James quite like a ball dominant point guard who can’t shoot. These guys might start Rajon Rondo. Anthony Davis is at his apex when surrounded by as much shooting as possible allowing him to roll to the rim while getting to protect the paint defensively. Vogel and Co. seem committed to letting him have his wish of being a Power Forward and playing him next to Dwight Howard and Javale McGee. Additionally, Vegas lines are historically inflated toward big market/popular teams. Add it all up, and we have a team who’s sum will likely be less than it’s total parts at least until the playoffs start.

5. Charlotte over 23.5

Don’t take this as an endorsement for the Hornets. This team in all likelyhood will suck. But will they suck to the worst record in the league? Doubtful. As flawed as Terry Rozier, Cody Zeller, Nic Batum, Marvin Williams, etc. are, they provide a framework of a merely bad team, rather than train-wreck awful team. I see more of a mid-high 20’s win team with no excitement for the future here than anything else.

Close to Locks

4. Dallas over 40.5

This team has two guys who wouldn’t be surprising all-stars and strong depth at every position. Rick Carlisle is still one of the best coaches in the entire league as well. Put it all together and you would have team that would be a safe bet for the playoffs in just about any other season other than this years absolutely loaded west.

3. Detroit under 37.5

Last year this team overachieved to 42 wins with Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin only missing 7 games combined. Let’s say I wouldn’t bet on that happening again. Then look at the depth chart on the wings, and see if you can find a team in more dire straits than these two. Maybe Griffin and Derrick Rose defy time and age better in their 30’s than they did in their late 20’s but that does not seem like a wise thing to count on. I will come out with my projected standings before the season starts, but I’ll say that I basically have the Bulls and Pistons win totals flipped.

2. Philadelphia under 54.5

This team traded away their best player. In all the hype surrounding what the Sixers did this last off-season that fact always seems to get lost. Jimmy Butler is who carried them when the playoffs came around, and now he’s in Miami. It’s hard to win more games when you start the off-season by not bringing back one of the 12 best players in the league. Even if we go back to two years ago are we sure that Al Horford, Tobias Harris and Josh Richardson are better than Robert Covington, JJ Redick and Dario Saric? While the bench has some intriguing young guys, there still isn’t anybody there that has proven they can be counted on. And the final elephant in the room is that Joel Embiid’s health is far from a guarantee. It will be hard for Philly to get to the 51 wins they hit the last 2 years. Adding to that total is a bet to hedge.

Phoenix over 29.5

I understand betting on Phoenix after the absolute shit show they have been the past few years could feel like lighting your money on fire. Still a top 8 of Rubio-Booker-Oubre/Evans-Saric-Ayton-Johnson-Baynes is littered with guys you could safely call around league average. Monty Williams is a repsected coach who should help stabalize things as well. Finally, the Suns are kind of like the anti-Lakers, a relatively unpopular team that Vegas might purposely set a lower line for. I have them in the same class as the Sacramento Kings, a team that has plenty of depth that should allow for it to be competetive in the west but not enough star power to make the playoffs. Enough so their win total is more likely to begin with a 4 than a 2.

The Lock of the Season

1. Indiana under 47.5

I can’t figure this one out for the life of me. This team overachieved to 48 wins last year, and then lost 4/5 of its starting lineup for at least the start of the season. Sure Malcolm Brogdon is a nice pickup, and they had some depth to absorb some of those losses, but for a team that thrived so much on it’s unity to succeed such roster turnover could be even more drastic than for most teams.

That doesn’t even get into how poorly constructed this roster, or at least the front-court, currently is. Both Sabonis and Turner are solid NBA Centers, but they posted a negative +/- in the minutes they shared the floor together. The league is getting to a point where it becoming increasingly difficult to run twin towers kind of lineups. These guys will miss Thaddeus Young a lot.

Maybe Nate McMillan and the culture he has fostered are not earning the credit they deserve, but even then it’s almost impossible for me to map out ways where this team reaches the heights of the last couple of seasons. My money says this team doesn’t even get to .500. Run to Bovada and thank me in April.

Today we are continuing with the final column of my 3 part series on the top 30 players I would start my NBA franchise with. I’m starting at #10 and working my way down to 1. As I have done in the previous editions of this project I broke players down into groups and discussed compared them instead of just doing a rote listing. Let me know who I’ve got too high or too low.

Guys who Could become the Best Players in the League, but have to Learn How to Shoot

10. Ben Simmons

7. Zion Williamson

Good luck finding a more dynamic, versatile, unique combination of skills than these two have. It’s no exaggeration to suggest in a few years we will be able to say these two are a pair the only handful of guys in League history that could credibly play any position on the court 1-5 offensively and defensively. The size, feel for the game, athleticism, handle, and passing is so rarely seen at this high of a level across the board that it feels criminal to have them this low.

Still when the games matter the most and defenses become locked in on a whole other level, players weaknesses get particularly bright lights shined on them. The inability to shoot at an even competent level has greatly hurt Simmons during his 2 playoff runs with the Sixers, and could potentially derail Zion as well.

When I first started tackling this exercise I actually had Simmons ahead. Of the two he is the one we have actually seen use this incredible skillset in an actual NBA game before. That being said, he’s older and has yet to show ANY development in that jump shot outside of a couple quick videos on twitter. Shooting prowess generally develops incrementally, Simmons won’t even take them in the games.

And that is without getting into the mechanics of the shot. I’m no shooting coach, but that shot is the opposite of pure. It looks like somebody threw Ray Allen in a blender or something. Making things particularly awkward is the fact that we still don’t know which hand he should be shooting with! I’m normally one to bet on a players shooting to improve as time goes on, but Simmons is starting in such a deep pit one has to wonder if we’ll ever get to enjoy the beauty of his game at the highest level as teams will always find a way to game plan for him.

You could argue I have Zion five spots too high, or too low and I wouldn’t argue with you. The argument he’s too low is that in my lifetime there have only been 3 prospects with more hype coming out of the draft than him: Tim Duncan, Lebron James, and Anthony Davis. Or to simplify: that’s the second and fifth best players all time, along with a guy who’s name we haven’t gotten to yet on this list. If his career pans out like AD’s, which has gone well, but far from perfect he should be top 5.

The counterpoint would be: We still have not seen him in a game yet! At Duke he wasn’t even his own teams own leading scorer. Will he be a true offensive alpha in the NBA? He’s so damn powerful and explosive that he might blow through a shoe again and hurt himself even worse than the last time.

All of those points were enough to push him down a little bit. Ultimately, he goes ahead of Simmons as at least we know that he’s shooting with the correct hand.

The Best Big Men in the Game

9. Anthony Davis

8. Nikola Jokic

The placement of these two may be somewhat controversial, but it shouldn’t be. And while there may be only one space separating these two, the gap is larger than that. Nikola Jokic is a better player than Anthony Davis right now, and he’s a couple years younger.

Jokic has one of the oddest looking games you’ll find in the league. There is no template to follow of guys who play like him. They just don’t make that many 7 footers who can’t jump over a telephone book yet make passes that make Steve Nash jealous. He’s also kind of fat, and looks like he might chain-smoke and/or helped Vladimir Putin murder people.

That being said almost every part of his game that people have brought up as a weakness or a potential long term issue either gets proven false or is just plain wrong.

The defense is the easy one, and it makes sense. The stereotype of a defensive center is a DeAndre Jordan type big time athlete who plays well above the rim, swatting shots from every direction and protecting the paint at a high level. Jokic certainly does not fit this module. Still, just like he does on offense he can see one step ahead and is almost always in correct position on rotations and hardly ever leaves the backside unprotected to go after a careless shot block attempt. He also uses his huge body to box out defenders and his hands are almost like magnets.

There was also the concern of how his playing style would hold up in the playoffs. This last year seemed to answer that question. While most players, especially younger guys, see their numbers and particularly their percentages drop in the postseason the Joker kept on producing at the same pace. Maybe it’ll become an issue deeper in the playoffs, but seeing as he’s a guy that can you there in the first place, he’s already shown more than AD.

Anthony Davis is a Chicago kid and I like him a lot as player, but at times I wonder if he might be a tad overrated, especially in comparison to Jokic as he does fit that traditional archetype of a big man. His defense is great, (and definitely better than Nikola’s), but he can get caught out of position from time to time and really doesn’t read the game at that elite level.

Offensively it’s a similar story. There is no stronger rim runner in the pick and roll than AD. He’s a hall of fame roll man in my book. Still that’s one of the easiest skills to find in the NBA nowadays, and it’s effectiveness is significantly more predicated on the ball handler and the spacing around it. Jokic’s passing is a waaaaayyyy more valuable asset. The final part that chips away at Davis’s value is his insistence that he’s a Power Forward. It forces him from what he does best, protecting the paint and diving to the rim, by dragging him away from the basket.

Anthony Davis was not what was wrong with New Orleans Pelicans basketball the past few years, however, the fact that he’s only gotten out of the first round of the playoffs once can at least partially be attributed to him just not quite being on that Lebron or even Steph/Harden class of superstar.

The Best Young Prospect in Basketball

3. Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic is the best young prospect in basketball who has already played in an NBA game and it’s not even close. What he achieved last year as a teenager in the league is incredible. He had huge expectations coming into the league as the best European prospect ever and found a way to even clear that bar.

Lebron James, Michael Jordan, Oscar Robertson and Tyreke Evans are the only other players who put up 20-5-5 in their rookie seasons. Michael was the only one who did it with his level of efficiency, Lebron was the only one to do it at a younger age. You could make a decent argument that there have been less than 5 people ever to be as dominant at the sport at his age ever. This dude earns all the superlatives.

All that being said, why then does he slot in at #3 instead of #1? The same reason he slipped to #3 in the draft. There are concerns that his merely average athleticism means that he just does not have the same ceiling as some of these other guys. When watching Luka play there aren’t any weaknesses that make you wonder, “man he’s going to be so much better if he masters x-part of his game” like Ben Simmons’ jumper or an early career Anthony Davis’ handle. Despite being 5 years younger than Giannis, he feels like he might already be closer to his ceiling.

Ultimately, he projects as a guy who will hover around Top 5 player in the league, but never reaches #1 for close to a decade, like 95% of current James Harden’s offense with a little better defense. Depending on your taste for going for a championship right now, versus wanting to have a winning franchise for the next decade, you could put him in any order you wanted with 4 of the biggest superstars in the sport coming next on the list.

Guys who Might be the Best Players in Basketball Right Now

6. Lebron James

5. Kawhi Leonard

4. James Harden

2. Steph Curry

I have no idea with what to do with Lebron James in an exercise like this. His resume is significantly stronger than anybody else’s in the game, and nobody will match his peak. Still, how much does he have left in the tank? The effects of aging are obvious. He hides on defense, and takes more of those 30 foot 3’s each passing year. It makes sense with over 54,000 minutes on the career odometer. He’s still a near sure top 5 player in the league now, but are you just getting one season of that? Would this be the equivalent of going all in on just one season?

All of the reasons stated against Lebron above make sense, but if the goal is to win as many championships as possible, starting with the guy I would take over everyone in a winner take all Game 7 kind of scenario makes a lot of sense. The best play might be to start with Lebron, fill the roster with as many veterans that can play defense and splash three’s the rest of the draft and go get a ring right now. Is Cleveland crying right now about how bad their situation is post Lebron? I’d take a half decade in the lottery if Lebron and this veteran core could get me a ring in the 2-3 years or whatever they’re together.

A lot of people would have Kawhi Leonard 1 or 2 if they were putting together this list and that’s totally fair. Having him on top after last years playoff run is 100 percent justifiable.

Still, I would argue there is a lot of recency bias in the people who have him number one. If the 76er’s had an average backup center and didn’t get outscored by 99 points in the minutes Joel Embiid was resting in their series is Kawhi still your 1? What if Fred Van Vleet goes 6 for 17 instead of 14 for 17 in the Eastern Conference Finals? What if KD were healthy? A lot of things had to go right for the Raptors winning it all. Simply anointing Kawhi as the best player in the world because he was the best player on the champions is lazy analysis at best.

True he carried that Toronto team in the playoffs, but they went 17-5 in games without during the regular season. Having such a good team around him allowed him to coast a little bit throughout the regular season so that he could be fresh and take over when the games matter the most starting in April. In all Kawhi is more of an ultimate cherry on top kind of player rather than drag a lottery team to 50 win prime Lebron level player. If I’m taking him top 5 in a draft like this it’s going to be extremely difficult to build the requisite depth to allow him to do the whole “load management” thing and not be behind the 8 ball come playoff time.

In all Kawhi is more of an ultimate cherry on top kind of player rather than drag a lottery team to 50 win prime Lebron level player. Even though he’d be the second choice only to Lebron in a Game 7, the other factors that go into cause him to slip to 5.

James Harden offensively these last two regular seasons has been as close to perfection as you’ll see. It’s no exaggeration to say that he’s obliterating even the prime’s of Hall of Famer’s like Kobe Bryant. It’s a dominance we’ve only seen by Lebron and Steph post Jordan. He deserves legit consideration for best current player in the world right now.

That level of play is great, but the 82 games of the regular season don’t matter as much as the games that start in April. While the other guys in this tier either maintain their regular season play, or take it up another notch, we now probably have a large enough sample size to say Harden simply does not. I am not convinced that this is necessarily chronic, and maybe having Westbrook along side to share more of the regular season load will mean better playoff performances, but until then he’s staying at 4.

Steph Curry is assuredly several spots lower in the eyes of conventional wisdom than he is here. He’s a guy that didn’t even make ESPN’s NBA Rank top 5 this year (ridiculous!!!) and is on the wrong side of 30. I’m here to tell you conventional wisdom is wrong.

One of the issues is that too often Steph gets tied to one of his own teammates. It’s not that he’s just one of the splashbrothers, he’s the greatest shooter ever. Klay is just a great one. I’ve seen it argued that Durant was just as good or important to the Warriors success the last 3 years. Really? The Warriors were 25-24 in games without Curry during the Durant years. Without Durant but with Curry? They were 33-4 the last 3 years including the playoffs until they ran into an absolute buzz-saw in the Raptors in last years finals. That’s a prime top 25 player all time and another Hall of Famer that Steph is just purely better than.

The age is a scary factor, but I’d bet on Steph aging particularly well. The last skill to deteriorate with age tends to be shooting, and nobody has ever done it on the level of #30. Kyle Korver is still finding work at 38. Ray Allen and Reggie Miller played at relatively high levels in their late 30’s. Steve Nash was a plus starter at age 38 or 39. Steph is the turbocharged version of him! It should come as no surprise if he’s still playing at an all-star level 5 years from now.

And people still don’t give credit for just how good he currently is. If you just looked at the box scores you would figure that he’s probably something of a fringe top 5 player in the league. However, a lot of that has to do with him deferring to guys (most notably KD and Boogie Cousins) to help integrate them into the Warrior’s offense and culture. I don’t know of another superstar who is as frustrating to watch due to his level of unselfishness. While this drives me nuts as fan at times, it’s a great thing to have for my franchise, especially when the time will come a half decade from now to have Steph pass the baton to whoever is next like Tim Duncan did in San Antonio. No wonder his coach is always comparing the two.

Add it all up and you have a guy who might be the best regular season player in the NBA, who doesn’t see his performance waver in the playoffs, who’s skillset should allow him to age particularly gracefully, and might be the best leader in the sport. MAYBE, I have Steph a spot or 2 too high, but that a lot of people wouldn’t have him in their top five is simply wrong.

The Clear #1

1. Giannis Antonokumpbo

The Greek Freak was an easy number one and it’s near impossible to come up with an argument for anyone else. He won the MVP last year, and is easily the youngest of the guys who are in consideration for best player in the league right now. Furthermore, of all those superstars he’s the one that feel as though he still has a ways to go to hit his full potential. If (and I’ll argue when) Giannis becomes an average 3 point shooter or close to it there will be nothing he can’t do. He can already get to the rim and finish at a level we’ve only seen Hall of Fame Center’s like Shaq do, only he also can credibly play point guard at the same time. He’s capable of both switching onto anybody and protect the paint an all NBA defense level. We’ve never witnessed anyone who can fluctuate roles so seamlessly and dominate in so many different ways on both sides of the ball.

The only hesitation one might have is with his playoff performance last year. This shouldn’t be that big of a concern as: 1. His play wasn’t bad by any stretch of the imagination and 2. That was his first deep run. Now that he’s gotten a taste of it, I fully expect him to be ready for the challenges of playoff basketball and understand the adjustments he’ll have to make.

The only question is how do you decide to build your team afterwards? Do you go with younger guys and play more of a long game or do you target win now veterans and get the ring ASAP? How do you build your defense? Do you want Giannis to be your main rim protector or do you want him more on the perimeter? There are similar questions offensively. Do you target at least one guy who needs the ball in his hands a lot or do you just go all out on 3 point shooting and maybe a couple decent secondary ball handlers like Middleton and Brogdon did with Milwaukee.

Those questions are all difficult, but the brilliance of Giannis is so profound it proves how incredible he is that you can even ask them.

Today is the second part in a 3 part series ranking the Top 30 Players I would start my NBA Franchise with. Today’s list goes from 23-11. Remember that, I grouped players with similar players skills together, rather than just listing them straight in order. Much appreciation to anyone who let’s me know who they I am too high or low on.

Current Star Guards who can be the Second Best Player on Championship Team Now

23. Kyrie Irving

22. Russell Westbrook

21. Jrue Holiday

18. Bradley Beal

While Kyrie is the only guy on this list who has actually been the second best player on an actual NBA championship team, he’s still the lowest on my list. Taking someone in the first round in this exercise literally is making them your franchise player, and we have quite a bit of evidence showing that isn’t Kyrie’s thing. Whether it’s defensive inability, frustratingly poor leadership qualities, playing below expectations in the playoffs when forced into an alpha role, or recurring major injuries his track record as a guy you build your team around isn’t impressive.

Still there are only a handful of guys who have his handle, shooting stroke, and ability to just go get you buckets against elite defenses. Taking him with a later first round pick, and then hoping a younger guy you get later in the draft develops into a true franchise star is a solid plan at this point in this hypothetical exercise.

Westbrook is probably the best player right on this list outside the top 15. While he isn’t the top 10 player his raw box score stats may indicate, he’s still as a tenacious, pressure inducing super charger as anyone else you’ll find in the League.

So why is he way down at 22? Point Guards that are that dependent on raw athleticism on the wrong side of 30 are scary to me. Throw in all the knee surgeries with how much he struggled to score efficiently last year and you’ve got enough red flags that you could be excused for thinking that you’re at an amusement park. And that’s without getting into how terrible of a 3 point shooter he has been throughout the course of his career. I toyed with removing him from the list entirely like his old pal Kevin Durant, but I’m not quite as worried as him breaking down, and there is a lot of value in having him this year,

Jrue Holiday is probably higher here than he’d be if you asked other people to do this exercise. Thus is the life of being a guy who thrives on defense while playing in a market where not as many people are paying attention to you. Even then he’s not just some guy who does the little things that don’t show up in the box score. He’s a guy who gets you 21 and 6 in addition to being able to guard anyone 1 through 3 at a high level. There’s a reason his teams have played better with him than without him on the court every single season in his 10 year career.

His ability to contribute in a multitude of ways should help him age more gracefully than a lot of these guys around him who need the ball in their hands to be effective. If he proves incapable of having the offense revolve around him in a couple years, he should still be an asset as a secondary playmaker, spot-up shooter, and plus defender.

Bradley Beal is a similar player offensively, only he’s a couple years younger. You can put him in any kind of offense and his skill-set is malleable enough to fit into whatever role you need from him. All-Star caliber players who don’t see their value drop when sharing the floor with ball dominant super stars is one kind of “hidden” value the stats don’t always show.

So if he’s a couple years younger than Holiday why is there only a two spot difference between them? Defense. Jrue is a superstar defender while Beal’s numbers come out well below average. That being said, it’d be interesting to see how his defense would grade out if he weren’t asked to carry such a heavy load, both offensively and in how many minutes he plays. Playing in a place other than Washington with better…….culture, could help too.

The Best Big from the ’18 Draft Class

20. Jaren Jackson Junior

Five of the first 7 picks in the 2018 NBA Draft were big men. A particularly interesting trend considering how the league is becoming more and more perimeter oriented. Of those five, all have at least one question regarding their ability: to protect the paint (Bagley and Ayton), extend their range to the 3 point line (all of them really), or even stay healthy (Bamba) with one exception, Jaren Jackson Junior.

I’m not sure if it’s a hot take to call him a better prospect than DeAndre Ayton, but it shouldn’t be. Not only does he already possess the skills needed to be a plus a 3 and D kind of player, but he’s shown some fervor off the bounce as well. Combine all that with him being the youngest player drafted in last year’s lottery as well as how he is lauded for having a strong work ethic, and it becomes hard to put a ceiling on this guy’s ability. There’s a real good chance he’s 10 spots higher the next time I’m doing this list.

Young Studs who are Probably Never Quite Top 10 Players, but You can’t Rule it out

19. Paskal Siakam

17. Jayson Tatum

16. Donovan Mitchell

It’s hard to put a limit on how good Paskal Siakam can become as it seems every year he makes yet another quantum leap from where he was before. It has been really fun watching him start off as someone who struggled to dribble when he came into the league to now possessing one of the most lethal spin moves in the entire sport. Some of this assuredly due to being introduced to the game at a relatively late age. Will the quantum leaps continue as a result?

Siakam was the principle reason Toronto was able to pull off the surprising feat of actually having a higher win percentage in games without Kawhi Leonard than with him last year. If Siakam does in fact take that next leap and even surpass what he did without Kawhi on the floor last year we could be looking at a potential top 10 player. If this is his prime and he more or less stays where he’s at we have a fringe all-star who can be the third best player on a championship team. #19 feels like the perfect hedge on either of those quite possible outcomes coming to fruition.

Mitchell and Tatum was one of the hardest debates on this entire list. In general I would lean towards a player like Tatum who’s size advantage and being a year younger would indicate there is more long term potential here.

Still, the load Mitchell has been asked to carry for a playoff team through the first two years of his career is insane. I saw on Nate Walker’s twitter the other day that he has the third highest usage rate of any player through the first two years of his career! The list of players who were asked to do so much offensively at this stage of their career and were able to do it with reasonable efficiency is very short.

As good as Tatum is just about every part of his game, he lacks a signature trait that makes super-stardom seem imminent. The ridiculously high 3 point shooting percentage from his rookie year always felt a little fluky and for as good as a scorer he is, he just doesn’t have that elite level athleticism nor Harden-like feel for the game that makes you think he’ll ever get you 25 a game. There’s a tun of value in having a guy who has no weaknesses in his game, but without an elite trait I don’t see him becoming a top 10 player in the league.

What’s interesting is that with the addition of Conley in Utah and Kyrie leading the exodus out of Boston this year we will probably see their usage rates start to converge and their roles become more similar. I’m predicting this brings out the best version of Mitchell. He’s now projected as a co-#1 option which should allow him to increase his efficiency and pay more attention defensively (he’s fine here, but not as good as projected coming out of college).

Tatum on the other-hand is someone I could see struggling to create offense as he’s asked to take on more of a lion’s share offensively, especially in lineups where Kemba is off the floor. To see how these two respond to their new roles is something I’ll be paying close attention to at the start of the season.

Fringe Top 10 Players just About to Exit their Primes

15. Damian Lillard

14. Jimmy Butler

13. Paul George

Lillard to me is the definition of a league average #1 player on a team. So having him check in at 15 makes a lot of sense. He’s clearly a half tier better than guys like Kyrie while being younger than guys like Russell Westbrook. I think getting to the conference finals like he did last year is the realistic ceiling for a team with him as your best player.

His shooting ability ought to allow him the opportunity to age relatively gracefully, but there is enough data of his performance tailing off against elite defenses, especially those with size in the playoffs that you have to factor it in going forward.

Jimmy Butler is still a hard player to evaluate cause he’s still has yet to find a situation where he’s gotten to flourish in a system built best to utilize his skills. Just about any other player on his level would have been afforded this opportunity, but during his peak Jimmy has to find a way to play alongside awkward ball dominant/poor shooting fits like Rajon Rondo, Derrick Rose, Dwyane Wade, Andrew Wiggins, Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. Give him the supporting cast and coaching that say James Harden has been fortuitous enough to receive and you would have a guy that would have been in the MVP discussion at least once in his career.

Instead we have a guy who has been banging his way through congested traffic when not having to watch some inefficient guard take “his turn on offense”, playing too many minutes while being tasked with playing All-NBA level defense on the oppositions premier weapon. When the playoffs arrived and Brett Brown finally realized he was their best player, they wound up being the closest team to take down the eventual champions being one crazy bounce away from going to overtime in a Game 7.

At the age of 30, with a couple knee injuries and being forced into playing crazy minutes for mediocre teams it’s sad that we haven’t gotten to see more of 76er’s playoffs Jimmy, It’s no sure thing that more opportunities will present themselves. Still, ESPN just put out their NBA rank the other day and he came in at 21. There is no more undervalued current superstar in the league than JB.

I’ve gone back and forth between Paul George and Jimmy Butler for years. Both are all world defenders who provide similar offensive value in different ways. George is a far superior shooter that can space the floor at an elite level making him the perfect compliment to another offensive force. However, last year in lineups with Westbrook was off the floor where George was forced into the role of having the offense revolve around him, he posted a well below average (you could even call it a Westbrookian) true shooting percentage of 51% on a 30% usage rate. In a lot of ways he’s the opposite of Lillard. George is an apex, championship level #2 who loses value if asked to be a #1. Lillard as a guy who is a fringe top 10 alpha who loses value the less he has the ball in his hands. Butler would be the midpoint between the two.

How you wind up ranking these 3 really good players comes down to personal preference more than anything. I went with my list like this, because George is a little younger than Jimmy, and put Lillard last cause his playoff struggles scare me more than Jimmy’s leadership……….abilities.

Young Dominant Bigs with Almost as Big Question Marks

12. Joel Embiid

11. Karl Anthony-Towns

Who would you rather have: One of the sports premier talents with a scary injury history and who’s playing style may not work in playoffs series’s against the most elite of defenses; or a guys who’s skill level has only been seen in a handful of 7 footers all time, yet his physical traits never translate into the defensive accumen he should possess contributing to the fact he has only played in 1 playoff series through the first 4 years of his career?

While some could argue that team success ought to tip this one towards Embiid, I moderately disagree. The difference between these two teams largely stems from the fact that Embiid was lucky to land a team that took Ben Simmons with a #1 overall pick while Towns has had the misfortune of having his career tied to Andrew Wiggins. Swap those two (or even take it one step further and swap the conferences they play in) and I imagine that narrative would be wiped away.

The injuries are really scary as well, but what really did it was watching Aaron Baynes and Marc Gasol being able to almost neutralize Embiid the last two post seasons. When the games really matter, you need to have counters to your bread and butter. KAT beats you from all over the floor. If Embiid can’t get going on the block, he has yet to show another way of taking over offensively.

I went back and forth on the ranking of these for a long time before ultimately deciding I was more intrigued KAT’s all around offensive versatility even though I’m not sure he’ll ever harness the ability to anchor a top 10 defense. That’s basically a prerequisite for a championship team. It’s really the only reason why he’s sitting just outside the Top 10 instead of battling for a top 5 position.

That wraps up today’s work. I’m going to try and get the top 10 up before the end of next week!

Last year before the start of the NBA season I made a list of the 100 best players in the NBA. This year I’m doing the project a little differently: The top 30 players in the League I would start my franchise around if there was a league wide “fantasy draft”. As your reading this view it as a big board. However, depending on the the pick, particularly towards the end of the 1^st round my strategy would probably start to shift towards younger players. The players at the top of the draft give you such a big head start on the guys you’ll find in the 20’s, that logic says it’s probably best to play for a few years down the road if you weren’t lucky enough to procure one of those top couple of picks.

The big qualifier about this project is that contracts are NOT included. It’s hard enough to make this list without asking questions like “Would Anthony Davis sign long term after one year on my current team?” Rather, it’s more or less an exercise in how many Expected Championships Added are these players likely to produce throughout the rest of their careers. I start with the player now and see how he looks until he retires. Age and current playing level were the primary, yet not only, factors that went into making this list.

The plan is to make this a 3 part series. Today I am going to start with the 15 guys I had the hardest time cutting from the list and the last 7 that got in. I have each player ranked 1 to 30, but instead of just rote listing them in order, sometimes I broke up the list to better explain why I had a couple of players in the same “category” ranked the way that I do.

The just missed list

DeAndre Ayton

He’s going to be an above average player in the league for a long time. If he stays in Phoenix he’ll put up big numbers on fringe bottom 10 teams for the foreseeable future. All of that earned him a long look for this list, but at the end of the day it’s hard to reserve a spot for a big who neither defends the paint at a high level nor stretches the floor to the 3 point line. In a couple years we won’t be calling him a bust, but there 3 guys from his draft class that make this list who will make Suns fans wonder: what if?

Young (Stretch?) 4’s

Aaron Gordon

Lauri Markkanen

John Collins

All really solid young players who probably have to develop a little more than expected if they’re going to become All-stars. For Gordon and Collins that probably means another click or 2 up in their shooting and for Lauri it probably comes in the form of improving his shot creation ability or showing the ability to hold his own at the 5.

Interesting Young Guards

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Derrick White

Lonzo Ball

Trae Young

SGA looks perfect for the modern NBA. He can do everything you need from a PG with size that allows your defense to switch everything. For all the things he already can do he still projects as more of an above average across the board at everything kind of player who lacks that specific trait that’ll make him an all-star.

Derrick White is a guy who feels like he should be on this list, but then you realize he’s already 25. He came into the league so late that he’s only a year younger than Bradley Beal! At that age it’s more likely that you are what you are. In White’s case that means he is really good, but not top 30 guy in the league going forward good.

Lonzo Ball might be the most surprising name on this list, but I’m suuuuper high on him. Yeah his dad is unbelievably annoying, and the ability to score really isnt there. However, at 21 years old he is already an all star level rebounder, passer, and especially defensive player for his position. Point Guard is the position it takes longest to get comfortable playing, and shooting is the skill a player is most likely to improve on over the course of his career. I think playing in LA wasn’t the right fit for him and by heading over to New Orleans he will have a similar leap to another former #2 pick by the Lakers, D’Angelo Russell, (more on him later in this list) had by getting out of there. If there was one young guy in the league I was betting on “making the leap” it would be him.

I think Trae Young would crack the top 30 of these lists for a lot of other people, but he’s kind of the anti Lonzo Ball to me. The shooting is already so good it’s hard to project it getting much better as he ages, and the defense is so far away from adequacy that he’d still be a real negative if he made bigger improvements than most players his age. While there is a possibility he finds way to overcome his athletic deficiencies defensively, and evolves from really good shooter to an elite one and becomes a Damian Lillard kind of player, there are more future outcomes where in his prime he becomes 90-95% of the current Kemba Walker. That’s a really good player, but not good enough.

2 Way Wings that fell just short

Victor Oladipo

Khris Middleton

Otto Porter Jr.

Jaylen Brown

Oladipo was a guy who made the original list, but when I got a little deeper into it I wound up removing him. At 27 he already is closer to being on the older side than the younger side. And while he was arguably a top 10 player in the 2017-18 season, he’s been pretty much just an above average starter every other year of his career. Factor in a big time knee injury and he went sliding down.

Khris Middleton is probably a top 30 player in the league right now, but at the age of 28 for how much longer? Porter is 3 years younger, but just on the outside looking in from the current top 30 and there isn’t an obvious route for improvement getting there. He just misses as well.

Jaylen Brown is probably currently a half tier below the rest of these guys, but still has his prime in front of him. If he shoots 40% from downtown like he did year 2 of his career, instead of the 34% of his third year he belongs on the list. That being said, the 40% looks like the outlier from the rest of his resume, and I’d bet on him being just shy of an all star for the majority of the prime of his career.

2 Cuts that Really hurt

Draymond Green

Marcus Smart

These are two of my favorite players in the league. Smart has taken the torch from Manu Ginobli as the guy who is hard to describe from a scouting perspective just how valuable the guy is. The dude just does random shit that wins you games. He has an 80 grade feel for the sport, is an absolute beast defensively, and doesn’t get enough credit for his playmaking skills. Still, a fringe top 50 player who’s now in his prime is a second round pick, not a first for this exercise.

I like to say that Green is the closest thing the League has seen to Bill Russell since Boston’s GOAT retired. He’s a top 10 player in the league when he revs up his engine come playoff time, and the player most greatly underappreciated by causal fans today. I don’t like Draymond Green’s game, I love it. So how did I not find a spot for him on the list? Primarily it is that his skill-set as an undersized player for his position with a shaky jump shot on the wrong side of 30 scares me. On top of that, there are still questions of what his game would look like outside of Golden State’s ecosystem and how much of his greatness is tied to being on the same team as Steph Curry. Add it all up, and ultimately he comes up just a little short, even though it doesn’t feel right.

Last 3 Out

Kemba Walker

Kyle Lowry

Kevin Durant

Kemba was a deserving 3^rd team all NBA selection last season, and is a no doubt top 30 player in the league currently. The problem is that a smaller point guard at the age of 29 he doesn’t project to stay there much longer.

I’ve been hyping Kyle Lowry for a long time and I was ecstatic for him when he proved that he could be the second best player on a championship team. His IQ and shooting ability mean that he will be able to play for a while, but I doubt he’s got more than another year as a top 15 player in the league if that.

Kevin Durant is going to be the biggest omission from this list for most. I thought he would be on the list when I first went through it, but the more it got broken down the more he slipped until eventually he fell off. Even when he was 100%, he wasn’t a top 5 player for me (Lebron, Steph, Harden, Giannis, and Kawhi), and now he suffers the most devastating injury in the sport? A lot of people are saying this is just a 1 year thing, and he’ll be back to normal. Ask Boogie Cousins how that worked out for him. Durant is no spring chicken either. Checking in at 31 years old he’s on the downside of his career. He always projected to age effectively with his plus-plus shooting and size, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this injury at this age sap his ability to effectively guard on the perimeter and force him to be nothing more than a 4 for the rest of his career. I’d say it’s rosy to project KD to coming back at more than 85% and even if he does that, he’s more of an All-Star cause he gets to play in the East than superstar who you build your team around. There’s a real strong argument to get him on this list, but for me he comes up just one spot short.

The List

The 7 Footers

30. Mitchell Robinson

28. Rudy Gobert

27. Kristaps Porzingis

Robinson is almost assuredly the most surprising name on this list. That’s fine, I want to buy all the stock I can get on this guy now. What’s pacticularly surprising is that the ultra athletic rim-running 5 isn’t my kind of player. These guys are all over the place. Neither Steven Adams nor Clint Capela even made my just missed list. Last year’s #1 pick DeAndre Ayton found his place in the 40’s. So why is Robinson so high?

When looking at his size and athleticism the names that come up the most are DeAndre Jordan and Andre Drummond. However, when you get past that you start to see the the block shot rate, field goal percentage, and offensive rebounding dominance and there’s a lot of potential for a Rudy Gobert, or dare I even say prime Dwight Howard in here. The most likely outcome is obviously somewhere in the middle of all those names, but even that is an occasional All-Star. I think he’ll have an 8 year or so run as a top 40 player in the league

Rudy Gobert lacks the scoring ability to be the best player on a championship team, but he could probably be the second right now. When looking at how quickly some defense first (or only) 5’s fell of the cliff historically (Ben Wallace, Dwight, Theo Ratliff) I’m a little worried how he’ll hold up long term though. Sneaking on to this list makes sense.

Porzingis is one of the tougher players to figure out. The advanced stats say he was a little overrated in New York, and durability is a major concern. What the advanced stats miss is that he spent a lot of time playing out of position, while being asked to be a main offensive creator while he’s more of a secondary option. Playing for a coaching staff that emphasized shooting a lot of mid-range jump-shots didn’t help the cause either. I expect his efficiency will rise playing in a more modern offense with playmakers around him. The injuries are scary, but I think there is value in taking chances on health. If he stays healthy he could be top 20 player in the league through the back half of the next decade.

The Next Generation of Guards you Hope can be the Second Best Players on Your Championship Team

29. Devin Booker

26. Jamal Murray

25. D’Angelo Russll

24. De’Aaron Fox

Booker has been the proverbial big stats on bad team player up to this point of his career. Still, he is really young and has made major strides each year in the League. He needs to become a better playmaker, defender and more consistent shooter if he’s ever going to get to a Bradley Beal peak, but I think he’s shown already that he’s already better than the Zach Lavine type of empty calorie bucket getter. There might be even more value when you factor in that players tend to take larger than normal leaps in their careers after leaving Phoenix.

A lot of advanced stats don’t love Murray, but a lot of that is more a function of the unique circumstance of playing Robin next to Nikola Jokic’s Batman rather him lacking the playmaking skills normally associated with elite guards. I think some of his raw numbers would look better playing outside of Denver. Those numbers don’t give the credit he deserves for molding his game around his super unique center. Like the Devin Booker max contract last summer, I changed my mind several times over whether or not I liked the deal the deal for the team. It will be interesting to see how their two careers play out.

Russell was a hard player to rank due to how very mediocre his entire career was until last year. That’s probably more a function of Point Guard being the position it takes the longest to get settled into in the league, and the fact that the situation he came up in with the Lakers (Kobe Bryant’s weird final year, and the whole recording his conversation with Nick Young) was………less than ideal for a young player coming into the league. The leaps he made last year are more likely here to stay than not. I think there are more all-stars in his future even though he might be a little overstated as his porous defense saps more value than most people realize it does.

De’Aaron Fox exploded last year and made the Kings an interesting team for the first time in a decade. He may in fact be the fastest player in the league and appears to be ascending towards stardom. Normally this is the kind of guy I would be all over, but I’m pumping the brakes a little bit compared to some. The main reason is, a lot of his breakout last year was tied to a breakout in 3 point shooting. At 37% last year he was above league average. If he can stay at that level then I’m all in on him becoming an All-Star and he’s roughly 10 spots too low. The thing is that he shot 14% from the shorter college 3-point line just two years ago. Some of that screams REGRESSION!!! to me. Even if he is just a little below average shooter for career his speed and passing will make him a plus point guard going forward.

That’s it for Part I. Hoping to have Part II out by the end of next week!